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Wednesday, 4 September 2013

What will cruise missile attacks do to Assad's military capabilities?

Posted on 03:34 by Unknown
I don't pretend to be any military expert - but these are a few of my thoughts.
Other thoughts from more knowledgeable military people would be appreciated.

America will be able to knock out Assad's radar stations.
They will be able to bomb airfields away from civilian populations.

The radar station info is easily replaceable by Russian satellite imagery and naval reconnaissance.
Russia's naval base at Tartus is likely to be the transfer point for Russian intel.

There are no recent reports of Assad using planes to attack (there were some several months ago).

I do not know how many of Assad's 350 Migs America could destroy.
Assad is bound to have at least some underground storage.

Mobile military hardware will be moved to residential areas wherever possible to reduce the chances of America targeting it.

The Americans cannot target chemical stockpiles - the risk of release of chemical agents causing thousands of civilian casualties is far too high. America has already said this.

Assad may be able to move some of his chemicals to high probability targets such as airfields or radar stations to maximise civilian casualties from cruise missile strikes.

The mobility of Assad's forces will be greatly diminished during the period of cruise missile strikes.
His defensive capabilities in towns already held will not be affected that much.
Gadaffi held out for 7 months in isolated towns by firing from inside residential areas and he didn't have Russian intel.

Saddam had lots of mock up tanks that drew American targeting.
I do not know if Assad has the same.

There are 30,000 Russians in Syria.
Russia has started evacuating some of them.
What happens if there are significant numbers of Russians killed by a cruise missile strike?

Assad's government is already being moved into residential areas and public buildings such as schools.
His government infrastructure is unlikely to be affected much.

Communications infrastructure inside Syria will be targeted.
This will affect ordinary Syrians but I do not know how much the military communications will be affected - probably not that much.

Any hardware that is lost can be re-supplied by Russia, either during or after the cruise missile strikes.
Will the Americans risk targeting Russian military transports? Unlikely.
Re-supplies could also be effected via Tartus. America won't be targeting the Russian naval base.
Russia may well supply Syria with better and more powerful weaponry once the gloves are off.

The insurgents will try for a push while Assad is cramped during the attack period.
They are unlikely to be able to make many gains.
They will be able to consolidate at least some of the areas they already mostly control.

Making significant gains in Damascus or towns controlled by Assad is unlikely.

The situation on the ground is unlikely to be much affected by American cruise missile strikes.
There will be civilian casualties - I could not guess at how many there might be.
Assad will make the most out of any civilian casualties.

Assad may be able to make a propaganda coup out of American missile strikes.
There is a strong tendency in any country to rally round the government when attacked by another country, despite any previous differences there might be.
The populations in some of the towns controlled by the insurgents may become less supportive of the insurgents and his base is likely to be strengthened.

As reported previously American attacks are likely to broaden the conflict outside of Syria and/or destabilise neighboring countries, together with an increased risk of Americans or American assets being targeted by terrorists both at home and abroad.

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