Where is Obama's analysis of the risks of adverse consequences from a military attack on Syria?
These risks (and others) should be included in the Congressional debate that Obama now says will happen before any direct military action is taken in Syria.
An accidental chemical weapons release, killing thousands of civilians, from a cruise missile strike.
From retaliatory / self defense actions by Assad.
From retaliatory actions by extremist Shia groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas
The risks to American lives, including civilians from retaliatory terrorist strikes from America's illegal (under international law) actions
Retaliatory action by Iran such as impeding traffic in the straits of Hormuz or further assistance to Shia terrorist groups such as Hezbollah
The risk of further adverse reactions from the new military government of Egypt. There are already reports of Egypt preventing American warships from passing through the Suez canal.
Retaliatory action from Russia - e.g. giving Assad even better weapons
The risk of an attack on American warships by Assad
The risk to America's military bases in Kuwait, e.g. from attacks launched by Shia extremists in Iraq. There are 23,000 American troops stationed in Kuwait. What happens if rockets/small shells with chemical weapons are launched from inside Iraq?
The risk of the further destabilisation and increase in violence in Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon.
The risk of further destabilising Turkey.
The risk of attacks on Israel and drawing Israel directly into the conflict
The risk of terrorist attacks on American soil.
The risk of terrorist attacks in France as they are supporting the American action.
The risk to other American assets around the globe - e.g. embassies or even just Corporations or American civilians abroad.
What will the economic impacts be of military action in Syria?
The risk of a rise in the oil price which will choke off any economic recovery in the West.
The oil price and the price of gas at the pumps is already rising.
What will American public reaction be to a significant rise in the price of gas?
What will be the impact on the already high levels of unemployment in the West?
U6 unemployment is already at 14%.
America will spend more on war and increase it's already unsustainable levels of debt.
What are the risks of escalation and more countries becoming involved in the conflict?
The risk that American or Israeli casualties will lead to demands for further military action.
The risk that Russia will become more involved in the conflict than just arming Assad.
The risk that China will respond with economic actions - e.g. selling U.S. Treasuries.
World War 1 started with a very minor event - the assassination of an Arch Duke in Serbia, the escalation and declarations of war spread like wildfire.
What are the risks of starting something akin to World War 3?
There are quite a few countries lined up on each side. See this
Dangerous Crossroads. A War on Syria, Prelude to a World War III Scenario?
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/08/dangerous-crossroads-a-war-on-syria-prelude-to-a-world-war-iii-scenario.html
I am sure I have missed quite a few of the possible adverse consequences of direct military action in Syria.
The above are just some of them.
Other
America also lacks the moral authority to act.
It condoned and assisted Saddam's chemical weapon attacks on Iran.
It turned a blind eye to Saddam's gassing 5,000 Kurds.
It didn't condemn Israel's recent use of white phosphorous in Gaza.
It used chemical weapons in Vietnam - Napalm and Agent Orange.
It recently used depleted Uranium in Iraq which is causing hundreds of birth defects in Fallujah and Basra.
It recently used white phosphorous in Fallujah.
Nobody knows which of these risks will actually happen - at least some of them undoubtedly will.
America will create more enemies of America if it proceeds with military action in Syria.
Public opinion around the world is against it (I am not just referring to Muslim countries).
It will aid China in gaining more and stronger economic allies throughout the world.
It will aid China's rise and America's decline in relative global power.
0 comments:
Post a Comment