Long Term Treasury Yields
US Treasuries are currently in a descending wedge from 1987.
When they finally break out of this wedge the move will be sudden and large.
(Draw a line across the highs from 1987.)
I predicted in 2002 that the yield on 30 year notes would reach 3% or below over the next several years.
I was told I was nuts.
Chart of 30 year UST yield
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=%24tyx&x=37&y=10&time=20&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F7%2F2013&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=12
I predicted in June 2005 that the Shanghai Index would bottom out at 1000 and go on a major bull run.
Nobody believed me.
It bottomed at 997 in July 2005 and went up by 600% in a classic impulsive 5 wave up move.
China is still a bull market but it is currently in a consolidation phase.
It will move up to over 3000 and then down below 2000 before resuming it's bull run.
This will take in the region of 2 years from now before the next bull run starts.
http://www.investtech.com/main/market.php?CompanyID=99200063&product=6
My long term prediction for the US stock market is that it will go nowhere until around 2060 (at least).
It will remain range bound between circa 580 to 1600 (S&P 500) for all of that time.
This will of course blow every pension fund out of the water as they are still predicting 7%+ stock market returns despite the stock market having gone nowhere to down since 2000.
The same will apply to almost every European stock exchange and the Nikkei too.
The Nasdaq has yet to bottom.
It will go below the level set in 2002.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=nasdaq&x=37&y=10&time=20&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F7%2F2013&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=8
Are you going to tell me I am nuts too?
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