Fabricating

  • Subscribe to our RSS feed.
  • Twitter
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • Facebook
  • Digg

Friday, 6 December 2013

November jobs report without the hype - only 41,500 new jobs, REAL unemployment has gone UP

Posted on 19:03 by Unknown
Taking the government shutdown and furloughed government workers out of the equation and taking the total numbers for October and November gives the following numbers :

83,000 jobs were created in total in October and November.
An average of 41,500 per month.

This is far lower the number of jobs that are required to be created just to keep up with population growth, which is 150,000 to 180,000 a month.

664,000 people dropped out of the civilian labor force (they either retired or gave up looking for work, because no decent jobs are out there).

The number of people over 16 years of age grew by 399,000.

The labor participation rate (those in work or looking for work) further declined from 63.2% to 63.0%.

It got even harder to find a job in America in the last 2 months.

The headline "unemployment"  number declined from 7.2% to 7.0%. But this merely records the number of people that are currently claiming unemployment benefits or have actively looked for a job in the last 4 weeks, NOT the number of people that are unemployed.

All of the following numbers are taken from the Household survey - not the numbers used in the headlines which come from the Establishment survey.
The Establishment survey disagrees with all the other data available and consistently overstates job creation by between 80,000 and 100,000 per month.

The Data for the Last Year

Taking the period for December 2012 to November 2013 :-

1.1 million more people have a job.
This is a monthly job creation rate of 92,400.
The media are erroneously reporting that average monthly job creation is 195,000 for the past year, or more than double the actual rate.

The number of new jobs required to keep pace with population growth is between 150,000 and 180,000 per month.
The number of people over 16 has increased by 2.4 million in the last year (or an average of 200,000 per month).

While the number of people that are claiming unemployment benefits has declined from 7.8% to 7.0%,
the labor participation rate has seen a significant decline from 63.6% to 63.0%.
America's unemployment rate using the criteria used in other Western countries is actually around 11.5%.
U6 unemployment which includes people forced to work part time is 13%.

The unemployment overhang is actually over 23% - this includes people who would go back into the labor force if there were well paying jobs available (which there aren't - most of the jobs being created are in low wage sectors such as retail, almost no well paying jobs are being created).

No nation is going to prosper when the percentage of it's people that have jobs continues to show a relentless decline.

References 

All the above numbers are taken from the November BLS Household Survey
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

The government (and then the media) use the data in the erroneous Establishment survey (it makes them look far better than they actually are).
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm 

Update 12/16
Of the 1.1 million additional people that now have jobs since December 2012, 373,000 of them are over 65 (mostly because they cannot now afford to retire).
34% of the total.
The number of additional working age people aged 16 to 64 with jobs is only 727,000 or 60,000 per month.
This is far less than that required to keep up with population growth.
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02000097

Real Unemployment + Underemployment is now over 23% and slowly rising.
This number needs to substantially decrease (by about 10%) before we see any real improvement in the U.S. labor market.
This is unlikely to ever happen, given current government and Federal Reserve policy.


Update 12/21
What happens when the pace of new business starts up slows down?
http://www.npr.org/2013/10/31/241842739/what-happens-when-the-pace-of-startups-slows-down
You get dire jobs numbers - see above.

The BLS Birth/Death model is over estimating job creation by new business start ups.
The number of new businesses being started and the average number of people employed in those new business are both declining.
http://ian56.blogspot.com/2013/05/business-start-ups-bls-birthdeath-model.html

Over statements in the BLS Birth/Death model are responsible for some of the over statement for job creation in the Establishment survey (it does not affect the Household survey).

Email ThisBlogThis!Share to XShare to Facebook
Posted in | No comments
Newer Post Older Post Home
View mobile version

0 comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)

Popular Posts

  • Comment censored by Huffington Post - world affairs, the human condition & recent history
    The vast majority of Muslims want nothing more than a comfortable life and better prospects for their children. Just like most other people....
  • November jobs report without the hype - only 41,500 new jobs, REAL unemployment has gone UP
    Taking the government shutdown and furloughed government workers out of the equation and taking the total numbers for October and November g...
  • A complete pack of lies - the government story on the NSA Mass Surveillance programs
    Democratic Underground censored this article - they don't want the sunlight in. You can read the replies to it here http://www.democrati...
  • Censored by Huffington Post - the solution (to the budget) is simple
    The solution is simple.  You cut ALL of the well over $1.3tn a year of Corporate Welfare.  Some of this is direct subsidies to big business....
  • The contortions being performed in the American/Russian negotiations over Syria
    The private conversations between the Russians and Americans will be nothing like the reports being published in the media for American and ...
  • Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment/job number manipulation
    Why would the BLS Birth/Death numbers be 53,000 jobs better for January 2013 than they were in Jan 2012 when there was no appreciable differ...
  • Obamacare myths, facts and unknowns Updated 10/15
    Overall Obamacare is basically a wealth redistribution measure from the middle class to the poor, with  around 20% of the money transferred ...
  • The facts about Obamacare that Obama does not want you to see Updated 09/27
    The "Affordable Care Act" should more appropriately be entitled "The Make Healthcare Even more Unaffordable Act" but the...
  • Censored by Huffington Post - recession heading this way
    The $300bn that will go on increased healthcare spending over the next year or so, won't be spent on everything else.  Healthcare premiu...
  • William Binney from 2012 on Stellar Wind, NSA and the dangers of a Mass Surveillance "Stasi" state
    Binney was a 32 year veteran in the NSA, who resigned and blew the whistle after 911, when foreign intelligence systems were turned inwards ...

Blog Archive

  • ▼  2013 (500)
    • ▼  December (17)
      • What do we know about 9/11?
      • Congress is treating the American People as if the...
      • Utter Chaos: White House Exempts Millions From Oba...
      • Since Dec 2012, 373,000 more over 65's have jobs b...
      • Growing inequality. Only a very few people are ben...
      • Why are the rich paying a smaller share of taxes u...
      • Judge Rules Against 'Indiscriminate' NSA Spying. S...
      • We need to change the language of the political de...
      • Mother Jones gives out highly misleading info on P...
      • People are wondering : What will China do in the f...
      • The House has approved a crony Corporatist budget ...
      • The number of laws being passed that undermine a f...
      • November jobs report without the hype - only 41,50...
      • Why aren't the 99% of companies that are getting s...
      • Just how badly the country is currently being run,...
      • "Establishment" Republicans are Neocon Fascists, N...
      • Feinstein says that America is less safe than 2 ye...
    • ►  November (18)
    • ►  October (18)
    • ►  September (35)
    • ►  August (21)
    • ►  July (77)
    • ►  June (83)
    • ►  May (33)
    • ►  April (31)
    • ►  March (35)
    • ►  February (64)
    • ►  January (68)
Powered by Blogger.

About Me

Unknown
View my complete profile