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Thursday, 24 October 2013

Obamacare myths, facts and unknowns - cost $3.5tn+, 800,000 fewer jobs, lower GDP and higher unemployment

Posted on 20:47 by Unknown

Advocates of Obamacare frequently mention the increased coverage that comes with Obamacare. 
What they never mention is how much all this extra coverage will cost.
The insurers are not going to give all this extra coverage away for free.
Indeed insurers are taking advantage of the changes that come with Obamacare to dramatically increase (the pre subsidized) premiums and the amount of deductibles.

Obamacare is estimated to increase Healthcare spending by $400bn+ a year.
Government subsidies are expected to be around $300bn a year from 2014 - rising each year.
Cost $3.5tn+ over 10 years.

A significant slice of the extra spending will go in increased profits for the large insurers and large pharmaceutical companies, which is an inherent feature of how Obamacare has been set up (and designed in by the Heritage Foundation who came up with the basic scheme in the mid 1980's). 
 
Nearly all of this extra spending will be paid for by the middle classes who earn just above the Obamacare subsidy limits - 400% of the poverty level. Around $46,000 for an individual and $92,000 for a multi income family in 2014.

Some of this additional spending will be reflected in much higher (pre subsidy) premiums and deductibles.
Some of the cost will go on increased deficit spending that will have to be paid for eventually through taxes - these additional taxes will be paid by middle earners and above.    

Some of the extra spending will come from the young who are already struggling to pay off large student loan debts.
Obamacare has been set up so that the young who are relatively poor are forced to subsidize the relatively well off middle class elderly. 

There will also be indirect costs in the form of lower GDP growth.
The CBO estimates that Obamacare will cost 800,000 American jobs over the next few years.
This will cause higher unemployment, lower tax revenues and higher welfare costs.

Taking apart the CBO estimates of Obamacare costs
http://ian56.blogspot.com/2013/10/taking-apart-cbo-estimates-of-net-costs.html

Insurers are taking advantage of the changes brought about by Obamacare to dramatically increase premiums and deductibles.

If you think the Obamacare Exchanges and increase in premiums were bad, wait until you see the increase in deductibles.
http://hotair.com/archives/2013/10/14/if-you-think-the-obamacare-exchanges-and-premiums-were-bad/

Most of the current personal Health insurance policies are ineligible for Obamacare.
Insurers are taking advantage by scrapping the existing schemes and marketing new schemes at much higher prices.
Obamacare has already wiped out more than 1 million existing plans
http://www.wnd.com/2013/10/obamacare-wipes-out-more-than-1-million-plans/


The problem with American Healthcare is that it costs far too much, due to a lack of competition in the Healthcare market.
American Healthcare already costs double what it costs in all other developed countries with worse outcomes. (A lot of other countries have nationalized healthcare where the government controls the budget and hence total spending. There are no total spending controls in Obamacare.)

Obamacare makes a very bad situation much worse by lowering competition even further.
There are many many ways in which American Healthcare could be made much more efficient - Obamacare goes in exactly the opposite direction.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/24/business/health-law-fails-to-keep-prices-low-in-rural-areas.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0
Obamacare effect - 9 insurers exit the healthcare market in Nebraska 
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/10/11/obamacare-effect-companies-exit-nebraskas-health-insurance-market/

Pre subsidy premiums are expected to rise by an average of between 30% and 100% - it varies a lot depending on the State.
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=218947

Obamacare's Website Is Crashing Because It Doesn't Want You To Know How Costly Its Plans Are
http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2013/10/14/obamacares-website-is-crashing-because-it-doesnt-want-you-to-know-health-plans-true-costs/

More Obamacare myths, facts and unknowns
http://ian56.blogspot.com/2013/10/obamacare-myths-facts-and-unknowns.html

The facts about Obamacare that Obama does not want you to see
http://ian56.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-affordable-care-act-should-be.html 

Obamacare is going to be a disaster for the American economy.
Which is the major reason why Obama delayed the business fines until after the 2014 mid-term elections.

Obama is now hiding that the very poor can obtain free healthcare through government (read taxpayer) funded healthcare clinics, in order to try and raise the currently very poor enrollment rates.
The explanation of how to obtain free healthcare through these clinics has been removed (or hidden) from the healthcare.gov Obamacare website.
Who cares if the poor will be worse off by not having access to full information - they will be voting Democrat anyway.

Update 10/25 

A few of the ways that Healthcare could be made more affordable in America

Allow healthcare insurance across state lines to make it more competitive and reduce the cost.
Motor insurance can be carried out across state lines and that is a FAR MORE competitive industry than health insurance.
Motor insurance pays out more than 100% of premiums in claims.
Obamacare specifies that the insurers can make no more than 20% of profits on premiums (but that is easily got around).

Drastically reduce the price of prescription drugs or go generic earlier.
Total savings around $100bn a year.
Take a look at the REAL price of drugs by seeing what is charged in Mexico or Canada.
The drugs companies charge double in America and sometimes a lot more.
America is artificially boosting the profits of the large drugs companies, half of which are foreign owned, from protectionist measures by the United States government.
Congress is forever passing new laws protecting a large pharmaceutical company's profits from a new drug.

Reduce the over $100bn of Medicare fraud a year.

Stop the over treatment and over prescription. 
Sick Money: How Mitt Romney's Bain Investments Are Exploding the Deficit and Harming Our Health
http://ian56.blogspot.com/2012/09/sick-money-how-mitt-romneys-bain.html
A large number of tests are not required, or are of very dubious value, but the healthcare provider makes a large profit if they are carried out.
Over 10% of the American population are on Prozac or similar anti-depressants and often people are on them for years - a far higher proportion than other countries.
Similarly a huge number of kids are now on Ritalin or some other ADHD treatment - it's now a huge industry. Kids used to let off some steam playing ball in the park and get their excess energy out of their system. Probably half of the kids being medically treated just need to let off some steam.

Routine tests, treatments and procedures often cost 10 times as much as they do in other countries.
Find out why and cut the cost by 90%. 

Reform the system where doctors spend half their time filling in insurance forms instead of treating patients.

Reduce the cost of malpractice insurance.
The costs are several times higher than they are in other developed countries. 

Get a group of experienced healthcare professionals together (front line doctors and nurses), that do not derive a substantial portion of their income from the drugs companies, and see what suggestions they can come up with.
I am sure they would come up with LOADS of good ideas. The suggestions here are just a taste of what could be done.

It should be relatively easy to at least double the efficiency of American Healthcare (halve the total cost).
France does it.
Since when have the French been able to do something better than Americans?
   
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