The estimated global oil reserves in the 1970's was about 200 years worth. (The date of the peak oil theory.)
The estimated global oil reserves now is about 200 years worth.
I predict in 100 years time estimated oil reserves will still be 200 years worth.
The relative price of oil will not change very much in the next 100 years.
It will stay in the range $70 to $100 per barrel - US dollar inflation adjusted.
If the oil price is measured in terms of ounces of gold per barrel it has been constant since the 1950's.
Peak oil is a myth and always has been.
It is spread by oil and energy companies who want a high oil price.
It is also used by the US government to persuade the public that the US needs to interfere in the Middle East.
It is also used by arms companies in order for the public to support the US government spending astronomical amounts on the military and for the US government to interfere in the Middle East.
Conflicts in the Middle East and the US interference used to create them, greatly assist US arms companies selling more arms to Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia and Israel and across the globe generally.
The record for US oil production was set in 1970 but is about to be broken in about 18 months time.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57538431/u.s-may-soon-become-worlds-top-oil-producer/
The US has a surplus of Natural Gas.
Some sources for the production of Natural Gas in the US are being cut back because the price of Natural Gas is about 20% too low.
A general switch to decrease the amount of oil and raise the amount of Natural Gas used in the US is needed.
There are numerous sources of carbon based energy.
Oil shale deposits in Canada and North Dakota (and elsewhere).
Fracking - extracting natural gas from rocks across the globe.
In the very small areas so far explored in the US and Europe, each have been found to have larger reserves than the Saudi Arabian oil fields (currently officially the world's largest).
In the UK, in the small area so far explored (near Blackpool), the reserves are estimated to be the equivalent of 70 years of the entire current UK usage of Natural Gas.
The energy reserves available from fracking are worth many trillions of dollars. Ways will be found to overcome the current environmental problems when something is worth this much.
New technology to extract more oil from existing fields, mainly new techniques that improve the proportion of oil that can be freed from the rocks.
The oil companies are now drilling horizontally following thin oil seams.
Previously oil companies only drilled into areas where oil has collected in large pools, they are called conventional oil fields.
There are very substantial deposits available from horizontal drilling - no estimates are available (the oil companies certainly do not want you to know).
New oil finds (none of them have been massive but there are more all the time).
E.G. New gas and oil reserves have been found in Greece (from 2006) which are worth $100's billions.
Then we have another really interesting possibility - deep oil.
No existing theory can explain how there is so much oil concentrated in the largest Saudi oil field.
If this field was supplied from a deeper larger geographical source it would explain it.
No existing theory can explain why some fields (e.g. the largest Saudi Arabian oil field) seem to be mysteriously filling up again. If they were being supplied from a deeper source through cracks in the rock it would explain it.
The Russians have had some success with finding oil much deeper than conventional theory suggests could be possible in Siberia.
We will see if deep oil becomes conventional wisdom in the next 20-40 years.
West Texas Intermediate Oil priced in Gold is pretty much constant since the 1950's.
It is only the massive increase in the money supply that causes what "pundits" like to call inflation.
The majority of this article was originally written around 2004 and posted on this blog in November 2011.
There have been minor updates of the latest developments but absolutely nothing unexpected has happened since the article was first written 10 years ago.
http://ian56stupidstuph.blogspot.co.uk/2011/12/peak-oil.html
Update 02/13
Meanwhile scientific research into potentially clean limitless almost free energy is suppressed by the government and the oil companies.
Research into cold fusion or the papers and theories of Nikola Tesla.
http://coldfusionnow.org/what-is-cold-fusion/
http://newelectrics.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/brillouin-lenrcold-fusion-device.html
Update 03/16
America is now the world's largest producer of oil.
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