Fabricating

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Sunday, 31 March 2013

EVERYBODY needs to be careful where they put their money. Canadian government discusses savings confiscation

Posted on 11:05 by Unknown



Even as news is surfacing that the Cypriot bank “bail-in” will now confiscate up to 62.5% of depositor funds, a new budgetary document from Canada’s finance minister suggests that America’s neighbor to the north may be considering a Cyprus-like bail-in system of its own.

A March 21st economic action plan tabled in the House of Commons by Minister of Finance James M. Flaherty contains the following language on pages 144 and 145:   
“The Government also recognizes the need to manage the risks associated with systemically important banks — those banks whose distress or failure could cause a disruption to the financial system and, in turn, negative impacts on the economy.  This requires strong prudential oversight and a robust set of options for resolving these institutions without the use of taxpayer funds, in the unlikely event that one becomes non-viable.
“The Government proposes to implement a "bail-in" regime for systemically important banks. This regime will be designed to ensure that, in the unlikely event that a systemically important bank depletes its capital, the bank can be recapitalized and returned to viability through the very rapid conversion of certain bank liabilities into regulatory capital.  This will reduce risks for taxpayers.  The Government will consult stakeholders on how best to implement a bail-in regime in Canada.  Implementation timelines will allow for a smooth transition for affected institutions, investors and other market participants.”


Continued at :-
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2013/03/30/Document-Canada-Considering-A-Cyprus-Style-Bail-In-Regime

It is hardly surprising that the Canadian government is discussing what to do in the event of a banking crisis, given the current state of the Canadian house price bubble - ready to pop in the fairly near future.

Canadian house prices are now double their long term inflation adjusted average.
Exactly where US house prices got to, before the US housing bubble popped in 4th Qtr 2007.

http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/canadian-house-prices-continue-to-rise.html

The New Zealand government is also discussing the possibility of future bank bail ins.
Don't be surprised if it happens in the the US and the UK as well as other countries in the Eurozone.
Putting money in a bank anywhere in the world is just not safe any more.
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Friday, 29 March 2013

Superb educational video of how the world & politics really work

Posted on 03:13 by Unknown

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUyWmmWtcFM

This video is 3 hours long, but it explains 5,000 years of history, how the world works and why wars happen, along with the best concise explanation of how the monetary system that is the Federal Reserve system works that I have seen (near the beginning).

It helps that the guy presenting is a GREAT lecturer and is very entertaining with lots of laughs.

You could show it to a 16 to 90 year old.
It would be worth far more to them than 5 years of education at school.
EVERYONE should watch it and help spread it around - you definitely won't get taught this at school.
It is amazing education for the general public.
Rick Perry (Governor of Texas) would learn a heck of a lot from watching it for example.

The last hour is about drastically reducing your American Income Taxes - you can skip that part if you are not an American and that doesn't interest you.
N.B. The Federal Reserve system applies all over the world (except North Korea) so it is equally applicable in EVERY country.

Acknowledgements 
This came to my attention via  @propagare
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Thursday, 28 March 2013

Anybody who thinks that Barack Obama is a Socialist or a Democrat should ask themselves the following questions

Posted on 04:29 by Unknown

Why is Barack Obama now spending 50% more on the military than GW Bush ever did? 
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/military-spending-1962-to-date.html 

Why did Barack Obama institute a Healthcare policy designed by Big Healthcare and Big Pharma to maximise their profits? 
http://fdlaction.firedoglake.com/2010/03/29/baucus-thanks-wellpoint-vp-liz-fowler-for-writing-health-care-bill/
Why didn't he institute policies that would make Healthcare more efficient and affordable instead?
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/the-affordable-care-act-should-be.html

Why hasn't Barack Obama thrown any senior bankers in jail for their multiple crimes of Libor Fixing, large scale money laundering, mortgage fraud, robosigning etc.?
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/the-massive-criminality-of-big-banks.html

Why instead does he insist that the big banks keep all of their over $780bn of annual government and Federal Reserve subsidies to the detriment of smaller much better managed smaller banks? 
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/the-780bn-of-annual-subsidies-to-big.html 

Why hasn't he reinstated Glass Steagal? 
Why does he continue to allow the big banks to hold the country to ransom? 

http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/shut-big-banks-down-stop-them-holding.html

Why does he allow the Federal Reserve to go on printing $1tn a year, which is helping no one except the very wealthy and making every one else poorer? 
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/some-charts-on-jobs-and-wages.html 

Why is he allowing the Federal Reserve to pump up the price of food and gas? 
70% of February's reported inflation was due to increases in the price of food & gas. 
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/the-2tn-of-excess-bank-reserves-is.html

Why does he allow the Federal Reserve to pursue policies that will result in the taxpayer being handed a $5tn bill?
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/there-is-no-way-out-for-federal-reserve.html

Why has Barack Obama not taken away the government subsidies for big oil, when big oil has had a decade of record profits? 

Why did Barack Obama hand the middle class and below a huge $200bn a year tax hike, while not touching the $200bn a year of Corporation Tax loopholes, tax breaks and dodges used by large Corporations. 
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/fiscal-cliff-deal-obamas-corporate-sell.html

Why did Barack Obama not touch the over $1.3tn a year of Corporate Welfare? 
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/it-is-very-easy-to-cut-1tn-from-federal.html

Why has Barack Obama not forced big pharma to reduce the price of prescription drugs (or go generic much earlier), when America pays by far the highest prices in the world? 

Why does Barack Obama insist on giving Monsanto unconstitutional privileges that make them above the Law? 
http://action.fooddemocracynow.org/sign/stop_the_monsanto_protection_act_seize_congress/
http://ppjg.me/2013/03/27/monsanto-receives-gift-from-the-senate-house/ 
Barack Obama has now signed the Monsanto Protection Act.

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The United States is one major economic crisis away from full blown Fascist authoritarian rule

Posted on 03:48 by Unknown

Think Germany 1932.

The major economic crisis required for full blown authoritarian Fascist rule is currently under development with the government's current economic policies and the Federal Reserve printing policies.

The multiple factors that will send America into a major recession.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/the-multiple-factors-that-will-send-us.html

CBO Spending Plans.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/cbo-projections-of-future-gdp-growth.html

The craziness of current government and Federal Reserve policies.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/the-government-is-being-incredibly.html

The multiple measures that have already been and are being putting in place for the expected future massive civil unrest resulting from a major economic crisis, mass unemployment and extreme poverty.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/obamas-civil-rights-violations.html

The only rational explanation for all of the above is that it is deliberate policy to cause a massive economic crisis in order to create the conditions for the public to call for a "strong leader" just like they did in Germany in 1932 and thus impose full blown authoritarian Fascist rule.
America is already nearly there.


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Tuesday, 26 March 2013

60 completely outrageous ways the Federal government is WASTING YOUR MONEY

Posted on 12:19 by Unknown


Is there anyone better at wasting money then the U.S. government?  Despite the sequester and all of the talk about “deep cutbacks”, the federal government continues to waste money in some of the most outrageous ways imaginable.  For example, does the U.S. government really have to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to study the size and shape of the reproductive organs of ducks?  Does the U.S. government really have to spend 1.5 million dollars to study why so many lesbians are overweight?  There is so much waste that could still be cut out of the federal budget, and yet the very small sequester cuts that just happened are being described as “catastrophic” by many of our politicians.  But you know what?  The federal government will still spend more money in fiscal year 2013 than it did in fiscal year 2012 even after the sequester cuts are factored in.  So if this is how much whining our politicians will do even though government spending is still going up, what would they do if we were actually forced to start living within our means at some point?  That is something to think about.  In any event, please show this article to anyone that believes that the U.S. government is actually “tightening the belt”.  Sadly, the truth is that the federal government is still wasting our money in some of the most frivolous ways that you could possibly imagine.
The following are some of the completely outrageous ways that the U.S. government is wasting money…
#1 The National Science Foundation has given $384,949 to Yale University to do a study on “Sexual Conflict, Social Behavior and the Evolution of Waterfowl Genitalia”.  Try not to laugh, but much of this research involves examining and measuring the reproductive organs of male ducks.
#2 The IRS spent $60,000 on a film parody of “Star Trek” and a film parody of “Gilligan’s Island”.  Internal Revenue Service employees were the actors in the two parodies, so as you can imagine the acting was really bad.
#3 The National Institutes of Health has given $1.5 million to Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, Massachusetts to study why “three-quarters” of lesbians in the United States are overweight and why most gay males are not.
#4 The National Institutes of Health has also spent $2.7 million to study why lesbians have more “vulnerability to hazardous drinking”.
#5 The U.S. government is giving sixteen F-16s and 200 Abrams tanks to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt even though the new president of Egypt, Mohammed Morsi (a member of the Muslim Brotherhood), constantly makes statements such as the following…
“Dear brothers, we must not forget to nurse our children and grandchildren on hatred towards those Zionists and Jews, and all those who support them”
#6 During 2012, the salaries of Barack Obama’s three climate change advisers combined came to a grand total of more than $370,000.
#7 Overall, 139 different White House staffers were making at least $100,000during 2012, and there were 20 staffers that made the maximum of $172,200.
#8 Amazingly, U.S. taxpayers spend more than 1.4 billion dollars a year on the Obamas.  Meanwhile, British taxpayers only spend about  58 million dollars on the entire royal family.
#9 During 2012, $25,000 of federal money was spent on a promotional tour for the Alabama Watermelon Queen.
#10 The U.S. government spent $505,000 “to promote specialty hair and beauty products for cats and dogs” in 2012.
#11 NASA spends close to a million dollars a year developing a menu of food for a manned mission to Mars even though it is being projected that a manned mission to Mars is still decades away.
#12 During 2012, the federal government spent 15 million dollars to help Russian weapons institutes recruit nuclear scientists.
#13 Over the past 15 years, a total of approximately $5.25 million has been spent on hair care services for the U.S. Senate.
#14 The U.S. government spent 27 million dollars to teach Moroccans how to design and make pottery in 2012.
#15 At a time when we have an epidemic of unemployment in the United States, the U.S. Department of Education is spending $1.3 million to “reduce linguistic, academic, and employment barriers for skilled and low-skilled immigrants and refugees, and to integrate them into the U.S. workforce and professions.”
#16 The federal government still sends about 20 million dollars a year to the surviving family members of veterans of World War I, even though World War I ended 94 years ago.
#17 The U.S. government is spending approximately 3.6 million dollars a year to support the lavish lifestyles of former presidents such as George W. Bush and Bill Clinton.
#18 During fiscal 2012, the National Science Foundation gave researchers at Purdue University $350,000.  They used part of that money to help fund a study that discovered that if golfers imagine that a hole is bigger it will help them with their putting.
#19 The U.S. government is giving hundreds of millions of dollars to the Palestinian Authority every year.
#20 Federal agencies have purchased a total of approximately 2 billion rounds of ammunition over the past 10 months.  It is claimed that all of this ammunition is needed for “training purposes”.
#21 During 2012, the National Science Foundation spent $516,000 on the creation of a video game called “Prom Week” which apparently simulates “all the social interactions of the event.”
#22 If you can believe it, $10,000 of U.S. taxpayer money was actually used to purchase talking urinal cakes up in Michigan.
#23 When Joe Biden and his staff took a trip to London back in February, the hotel bill cost U.S. taxpayers $459,388.65.
#24 Joe Biden and his staff also stopped in Paris for one night back in February.  The hotel bill for that one night came to $585,000.50.
#25 If you can believe it, close to 15,000 retired federal employees are currently collecting federal pensions for life worth at least $100,000 annually.  That list includes such names as Newt Gingrich, Bob Dole, Trent Lott, Dick Gephardt and Dick Cheney.
#26 The U.S. Department of Agriculture has spent $300,000 to encourage Americans to eat caviar.
#27 The National Institutes of Health recently gave $666,905 to a group of researchers that is conducting a study on the benefits of watching reruns on television.
#28 The National Science Foundation has given 1.2 million dollars to a team of “scientists” that is spending part of that money on a study that is seeking to determine whether elderly Americans would benefit from playing World of Warcraft or not.
#29 The National Institutes of Health recently gave $548,731 to a team of researchers that concluded that those that drink heavily in their thirties also tend to feel more immature.


Continued at :-

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/60-completely-outrageous-ways-the-u-s-government-is-wasting-money
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Censored by Huffington Post. The drone warfare program.

Posted on 03:15 by Unknown

There is no doubt that the drone strike program is fundamentally designed to recruit more terrorists, Jihadists and enemies of the West in order to justify astronomical levels of military spending and domestic surveillance. 

Just in Pakistan, the drone program has killed 200 to 800 Jihadist leaders while creating 80 million more enemies of America and anyone else who supports the drone program. 

It has also ensured the recruitment of terrorists and Jihadists for many years to come by traumatizing and terrorising local children. When these 6 to 14 year olds grow up - they will be the Jihadists and terrorists of the future. 

The double tap drone strike policy ensures that as many children as possible are traumatised. As America has already said, they want the "War on Terror" to go on for 100 years. 
Double tap drone strikes are an excellent way of achieving this by creating future enemies. 

92% of Pakistani's now consider the American government to be their enemy. 

A dramatic increase in just a few years. 
The reason most quoted for the increase is the drone warfare program which is terrorizing whole regions. 

The American and UK media may not publish the horrific results and pictures of innocent civilian casualties, but they get widely publicised in Pakistan and throughout the Muslim world.

You can also see the horrific pictures of mutilated children on the net. 

The above comments were in response to the following article about drone warfare in Pakistan and elsewhere :-
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/03/25/drone-strikes-uk-killings_n_2951412.html?utm_hp_ref=uk-politics&utm_hp_ref=uk 


Appendix - Related articles on the drone warfare program

http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/us-drones-are-killing-children.html
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/it-is-time-for-american-government-to.html
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/us-drones-are-threat-to-us-citizens-in.html
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Monday, 25 March 2013

The $780bn+ of annual subsidies to the big banks need to be taken away

Posted on 05:23 by Unknown

Whalen notes today that the big American banks get a subsidy in excess of $780 billion dollars per year.
Specifically, Whalen estimates the following types of subsidies to the giant banks:
  • $360 billion in Federal Reserve subsidies, by creating an artificial “spread” in interest rates (Bloomberg, Business Insider, Huffington Post, and many other publications have documented that the government is subsidizing big banks with artificial and guaranteed “spreads”, where the banks borrow cheaper than any consumer can, and then lend the money back to the government at much higher interest rates.)
  • $120 billion in federal deposit insurance (through the FDIC, backed by the Treasury)
  • At least $100 billion in government-guaranteed loans, especially mortgages
  • At least $100 billion in monopolistic advantages in the secondary market for home mortgages. Specifically, the government subsidies the big banks to steal away fees earned from smaller banks, gain on sale into the TBA market and servicing. Whalen quotes a veteran banker explaining:
The smaller players lived on the bleeding edge of the mortgage market, but they were also far more efficient lenders than the large banks. Now, care of the Fed, we have a highly inefficient oligopoly in the US mortgage market that is built around the largest banks.
  • More than $100 billion in fees in the over-the-counter (OTC) derivative market. Whalen explains
The lack of capital required in these transactions and other special dispensations from the Fed provide the zombie banks with unlimited leverage and almost no public scrutiny. The fact that OTC contracts are exempt from the automatic stay in bankruptcy is a huge subsidy. The bilateral market structure is another.
That totals $780 billion per year.
But Whalen notes that there are many other subsidies as well:
Read more at :- 
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/03/top-banking-analyst-subsidies-to-giant-banks-exceed-780-billion-year.html 

N.B. This article does not mention some other large subsidies to the big banks. 
The Fed is currently spending $480bn on buying up mortgage backed assets from the big banks at far more than they are worth in QE3. 
The Fed is spending $520bn a year on buying longer dated treasuries in QE to infinity. This is free money to the big banks who are using it to speculate with and pushing up the price of food & gas (and stocks). 
70% of February's official inflation was due to increases in the prices of food & gas.

Take ALL of the current subsidies to the big banks away - they are INEFFICIENT and a complete liability to America. 
This would allow smaller better run and managed smaller banks and credit unions to fairly compete. 
It would take business away from the big banks and force them to slim down.     

The big banks are holding the entire country to RANSOM. 
Reinstate Glass Steagal immediately. 
Remove ALL of their over $1tn a year subsidies. 
Prosecute the big banks for their multiple crimes - Libor fixing, money laundering, mortgage fraud, robosigning etc. Fine them $200bn+. Send the execs to jail for 30 years+. 
Madoff got 102 years for his crimes. 
The execs of the big banks have stolen far more than Madoff ever did.
Split the big banks up.
Prosecute them for their multiple crimes.
Force them to slim down. 
Then SHUT THEM DOWN.  
They are criminal enterprises, a complete liability to the economy and holding the country to ransom. 

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Sunday, 24 March 2013

Censored by Huffington Post : GW Bush was the worst President ever.

Posted on 07:00 by Unknown

Without a shadow of a doubt GW Bush was the worst President in American history. 

That was until Obama came along and offered him some very serious competition for the title.
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Saturday, 23 March 2013

Putting all of the economic data together and projecting the future for the US (absolutely dismal)

Posted on 06:16 by Unknown



The erosion of the US economy in 2 words - Jobs & wages.

http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/some-charts-on-jobs-and-wages.html

The problems of the US economy are due to a transfer of wealth to the top 1%, (mostly via astronomical levels of military spending and Corporate Welfare)  and a consistent and dramatic decline in real wages and disposable incomes.

QE and money printing is a mechanism to transfer the wealth of the many to the few.
The top 1% are still doing very well.
The 99% are NOT.

Congressional budget plans and why the US is in deep trouble.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/cbo-projections-of-future-gdp-growth.html

All of the Fiscal Cliff deal, the full implementation of Obamacare and Current Federal Reserve printing are strongly recessionary.
The effects are already showing up in the jobs reports.

http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/february-jobs-reports-explained-and-why.html

Obama's "recovery" in a set of economic charts.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/unemployment.html 

The overall picture 
A very deep and prolonged recession will start in the second half of 2013 due to current government and Federal Reserve policies. 
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/the-multiple-factors-that-will-send-us.html
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The multiple factors that will send the US into a very deep and prolonged recession Updated 07/14

Posted on 05:51 by Unknown

Fiscal Cliff deal 
Imposed a $200bn tax hike on the middle class and below, while retaining all of the over $1.3tn a year of Corporate Welfare, thus causing declines in ordinary people's disposable incomes of around $200bn a year.

Federal Reserve printing
Is causing steep price rises in things like food and gas, due to the big banks speculating with the $1tn of new money being printed each year.
70% of the reported inflation rises in February were due to increases in the prices of food and gas.
The headline cpi number (which includes food & gas) was 0.7%, while core cpi (which excludes food & gas) was at 0.2% in February.

Current Federal Reserve policies are causing substantial declines in the disposable incomes of the 99%.

Europe's Recession
Europe has just entered a deep and prolonged recession due to it's mountainous debts.
Europe is America's largest export market.
Europe's debt crisis will awaken again and will explode in much greater magnitude than has been seen to date.
What is currently happening in Cyprus is just a small taste of what is yet to come.
Nothing whatsoever has been done to resolve Europe's debt problems over the last 3 years.
Indeed the reverse is absolutely true, the policies adopted in Brussels and by the ECB have consistently made things substantially worse.
The "austerity" programs adopted by Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal etc. have actually increased government deficits by raising the cost of social benefits like unemployment payouts more than other spending reductions.
The "austerity" programs have been very largely directed at exactly the wrong things, e.g. Greece made a new order for $800m of new German arms contracts but cut spending on other things.

N.B. the rest of the world is dramatically slowing down too.
China, India, Japan, Brazil etc.
There will be no help from that direction either.

A worldwide economic recession is coming.

Obamacare
The full implementation of Obamacare in 2014 is set to have very significant detrimental effects on the US economy.
Healthcare premiums are set to rise by between 30% and 100% in 2014 and Obamacare will bring with it significantly raised inflation in just about everything else.
Total healthcare spending is set to rise by $300bn+ in 2014. That $300bn won't be available to spend on everything else.
The full implementation of Obamacare will significantly deepen the coming recession.
It is going to cost millions of American jobs over the next 2 or 3 years.
See the latest updates on this :-
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/the-affordable-care-act-should-be.html

Overall 

The US is expected to enter a very deep and prolonged recession starting 3rd Quarter 2013, if not before.
The growth rate of the American economy has been consistently slowing down at the rate of about 0.5% a quarter for well over a year now.
The average growth for 3rd and 4th quarters was 1% (you have to take them both together because of the substantial timing anomalies of large government arms purchases between the 2 quarters).

Projections of future growth rates by mainstream economists and institutions like the IMF are forever being lowered (they were just lowered again very recently).

This slowdown in growth is set to accelerate because of :-

The Fiscal Cliff deal (from January)
The increase in Federal Reserve printing by $480bn a year (from November 2012)
The growing realisation in the market and the actual events of Europe's debt crisis and deepening recession throughout 2013.
The coming realisation by businesses of the huge costs that Obamacare is going to bring at the start of 2014.

The effects of the above items are already showing up in the economic data.

E.G. The February jobs report was strongly recessionary, despite positive media headlines.
459,000 poorly paid part time jobs were created.
289,000 (relatively) well paid full time jobs were lost.
Overall the February jobs report showed a decline in total wages of about $3.5bn or a $42bn annualized rate, which is very strongly recessionary.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/february-jobs-reports-explained-and-why.html

Updated 03/31 
Median incomes just took a 1.1% dive in February

http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/bobbeauprez/2013/03/31/the-chart-from-hell-n1553741/page/full/

N.B. This drop in income is pre-tax. It doesn't take account of the large middle class tax hike in the Fiscal Cliff deal or the drop in disposable incomes due to the recent price rises in food and gas.

Update 07/14

Obama is now seeking to delay the full implementation of Obamacare until after the 2014 mid-terms because he knows how much the economy will be adversely affected by it.
(By delaying the imposition of fines for businesses that do not comply with Obamacare etc.)

Disposable incomes continue to shrink (despite the media propaganda that the American economy is somehow "recovering").
June's "wonderful" job numbers were actually terrible.
360,000 poorly paid part time jobs were created and 240,000 relatively well paid full time jobs were lost, resulting in an overall decline in both total wages and average disposable incomes (by around $6bn just in June).
17,000 more people were unemployed in June.
The massive tax hike of $200bn a year imposed on the middle class and below, continue to shrink disposable incomes by $16bn a month.

The consumer is already tapped out - the only lending that is increasing are student loans and subsidized car loans.

The cost of taking out a new mortgage has increased by 36% since the start of May (new mortgage rates have risen from 3.3% to 4.49%).
This will kill off the housing market.
Mortgage rates :-



Rising house prices were already an economic red herring - the largest price rises were in the biggest bubble areas pre 2008 and were in large part caused by hedge finds buying up tens of thousands of properties.
Early hedge fund entrants are already exiting this market, i.e. the more savvy participants.

We await the mainstream to report news of the debt crises from Slovenia and Malta - Cyprus will need an increase in it's bailout.
The massive debt problems in France should start being reported by the mainstream before the year is out.

Japan has already lost confience in it's massive money printing scheme.
The stock market and Bond prices have already seen sizeable falls there.

Indications are already becoming apparent for the coming lack of confidence in the US bond market and Bernanke's money printing.
The prices of US junk bonds have fallen dramatically, while the cost of new mortgages has risen dramatically.

The voodoo economists at the big banks are currently busy slashing their Q2 GDP estimates.
Goldman has reduced it's estimate from +2.0% in April to +1.3% latest.
Barclays recently revised down their estimate to +0.6% and JP Morgan to +1.0%.
Goldman over estimated Q1 GDP by 1.4% (+3.2% estimate vs +1.8% revised actual).
The official initial Q2 GDP estimates come out on July 31st. (There are 2 subsequent revisions to every official report.)

Update 07/15 Goldman Sacs joins JP Morgan by revising Q2 GDP down to +1.0%.

I said a few weeks ago now that I was expecting a final print for Q2 GDP in the region of +0.6%.
We shall see.

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Thursday, 21 March 2013

Paul Krugman is on the side of the big banks and large corporations. He is NOT on the side of the people.

Posted on 14:04 by Unknown

Paul Krugman is on the side of the big banks, otherwise he would be calling for the prosecution of the criminal senior bankers and advocating they be sent to jail for 30+ years.
Otherwise he would be calling for the big banks to be fined at levels commensurate with their crimes, LIBOR fixing, money laundering, mortgage fraud, robosigning etc.
He would be calling for the big banks to be fined $200bn+.
Otherwise he would be calling for the end of the all the government subsidies and the Federal Reserve bailouts which are now totalling nearly $1tn a year.

Paul Krugman is on the side of the arms companies otherwise he would be calling for massive cuts in the astronomical levels of military spending - $1,219bn in 2012.
Obama is spending AR more now on the military than GW Bush ever did.
Otherwise he would be calling for the end to the massive waste in the Pentagon bbudget like spending over $100bn a year on mercenaries and $12.6bn a year for the the F-35 plane which is a pile of junk.

Paul Krugman is on the side of the large drugs companies, otherwise he would be calling for massive reductions in the price of drugs.
Otherwise he would call for the FDA to stop working for the large drug companies and start working for the people.

Paul Krugman is on the side of large Healthcare companies - otherwise he would be against Obamacare, the blueprint for which was drawn up by the Heritage Foundation with the specific intention to increase the profits of large Healthcare companies.
Otherwise he would becalling for reducing the over $100bn of annual Medicare fraud and the blatant overcharging for Healthcare.

Paul Krugman is on the side of the large oil companies, otherwise he would be calling for an end to all the government oil subsidies.

Paul Krugman is on the side of the Federal Reserve which is wrecking the economy by increasing the price of food & gas and lowering the disposable incomes of ordinary people.
Paul Krugman is on the side of giving even more free money to big banks so that they can do even more speculation.  

Paul Krugman is on the side of the surveillance state.
Otherwise he would be calling for cuts of $10's bn dollars a year which is now being spent to spy and collect data on EVERY American citizen. Do you think the government should be able to see your bank account statements and financial transactions without a warrant? That is what the government is now doing.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/20/cia-gus-hunt-big-data_n_2917842.html?utm_hp_ref=tw

Paul Krugman is on the side of large Corporations, otherwise he would be calling for the end of all Corporate Tax breaks and loopholes currently exploited by the large Corporations to pay almost nothing in Corporation Tax.

Paul Krugman is on the side of large Corporations and NOT on the side of the people.

Otherwise he would be calling for cutting Corporate Welfare by over $1.3tn a year (see above) and giving that money back to the people through MASSIVE tax cuts to middle earners and below.
That would INCREASE ordinary people's disposable incomes, get bottom up spending going again and increase employment.
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Wednesday, 20 March 2013

Comment censored by Huffington Post. The truth about the coming recession & the shambles of government & Federal Reserve Policies

Posted on 16:20 by Unknown

The unemployment rate is going to go UP over the next few years due the governments AND the Federal Reserve policies. 

BOTH of them are DEEPENING the coming US recession which is going to start 3rd Qtr 2013 or earlier. 

N.B. the February jobs report was strongly RECESSIONARY. 
It showed a massive drop in total wages of about $3.5bn or a $42bn annual rate. 

January also showed a massive $500bn drop in personal incomes and a rise of $18bn in personal expenses (the prices of food & gas is rising because of the current Federal Reserve policy of more printing). 

The drop in personal income was exaggerated because of the last minute scaremongering shenanigans over the fiscal cliff deal. 

But disposable incomes will be dropping a lot due to the massive $200bn tax hike on the middle class included in the Fiscal Cliff deal and the large rises in the price of gas. 

Massive rises in the cost of healthcare are also on their way due to Obamacare. 

The current policies of the government (both parties) and the Federal Reserve are EXACTLY the OPPOSITE of what is required to get growth going again. 

This recession is going to be VERY deep and VERY prolonged with the policies currently adopted. 
The unemployment rate will NEVER get to 6.5% or below in the next 20 years with the policies that have been adopted.

Addendum
Huffington Post guidelines state that you are not allowed to disparage public figures. (Although anyone with a Republican bent or bias seems fair game - almost anything goes in that case.) 
Please state the line in this comment that disparages a public figure.
It is a purely factual comment. 

Huffington Post just don't like anyone destroying Barack Obama with facts and figures. 
Any comment that might do this is removed.
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Monday, 18 March 2013

Why is Rand Paul pushing vote losing policies? Why isn't he pushing REAL issues instead?

Posted on 03:54 by Unknown


Why is Rand Paul pushing through a pro-life bill?
Why did he say he would abolish the department of Education?

The liberal Corporate media will have a field day with both of these.
Why isn't Rand Paul sticking to REAL issues and easy vote winners instead?

Abortion is not a Federal government issue - it is the business of the states.
Just over 70% of the population support abortion.
Rand Paul can be pro-life - he doesn't have to push it and lose public support over it.

We all know the Department of Education should be abolished because of the immense harm it is doing in NOT educating our children or giving them decent prospects to get a decent or well paid job in the future.

Most of the people that Rand Paul will need to attract (i.e. Indies) don't get why the Department of Education should be abolished and what an extremely bad thing it is. (See Appendix)
It is a difficult sell and currently a nett vote loser.

Why is Rand Paul even playing the twin party game?
Why is he even mentioning social issues?
The best weapon of the twin party system is to divide and conquer over social issues.

The way to win is to attract Indie voters.
And the way to do that is to concentrate on civil liberties and Corporate Welfare and tax cuts for the middle class to get bottom up spending going again, and tax cuts for small businesses.

Even hard core Dem supporters are now starting to recognise that Obama is as bad or worse than Bush on civil liberties and Corporate Welfare.

Why is Rand Paul playing right into the hands of the twin party system?

Why doesn't Rand Paul say things like :-

I will cut the price of prescription drugs and save money for everybody, including the costs of medicare/medicaid to the government.
Half of the large pharmaceutical companies are FOREIGN owned - cut their subsidies - America pays by far the highest prices in the world.
I am going to make Healthcare more EFFICIENT and more AFFORDABLE.

I will stop the near $1tn a year of government subsidies and bailouts to the big banks.

I will stop hiring mercenaries and use US troops instead.
Mercenaries cost about 5 times as much as US troops.
I can save over $100bn a year from the military budget just with this.

There is plenty of other waste in the Pentagon budget I will root out as well.
Like the $12.6bn annual cost until 2037 of the F-35 plane. Even John McCain called it a total waste of taxpayer money.

I will cut the size of the ballistic nuclear submarine fleet -it's still at cold war levels. We don't need so many.
That will save $2bn a year.

The project to develop new nuclear submarines will cost about $500bn over the next 10 years. I will stop that as well.

Why doesn't he say I am going to cut the taxes of the middle class not the rich.
Half of my spending savings will be used to pay for tax cuts for middle earners and below to get bottom up spending going again.

There are $1.3tn+ of savings I have identified so far.
Most of it is Corporate Welfare.
Some of it is Pentagon waste.
Some of it is in other forms of pure government waste - like foreign aid to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.


The items above would garner 80%+ of electorate support.

There are lots of other things that he could say about civil liberties and Corporate Welfare that would garner over 80% public support.

His stance against the use of drones garnered widespread popular support - even amongst Dems.
Amongst the constituency he eventually needs to attract - Indies, the support must be very widespread as well.

How about some other easy items of civil liberties.
Like :-

Do you think the government should have access to your bank account details when you have committed no crime and without a search warrant?
That's what Obama is doing with his domestic spying program.
And Obama is wasting TENS of BILLIONS of DOLLARS a year collecting YOUR bank statements and financial transactions.

Why doesn't Rand Paul stop playing with social and controversial issues and go for easy wins (in terms of public support) instead?

Why is he playing right into the hands of the twin party system?
It will come back to haunt him.
The liberal Corporate media will have a field day.

There are a hell of a LOT of easy wins he could go for.  
Why doesn't he start plucking the low lying fruit and build an unstoppable momentum in public polling?

Why doesn't he say these are the items of spending I am looking at right now?
They total well over $1.3tn a year.
There are huge amounts of very easy savings to be made.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/it-is-very-easy-to-cut-1tn-from-federal.html

Why doesn't he say - this is the level of madness we are now at.
CBO spending plans are for $6tn of annual spending by 2023, over $3tn of annual deficits, the National debt over $40tn.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/cbo-projections-of-future-gdp-growth.html

Why doesn't he say I am looking at the absolute craziness of current government policies and I am going to COMPLETELY CHANGE them?
I am going to do some really big things to turn things around.

I am going to make Healthcare much more efficient and affordable - not waste even more billions like Obamacare does.
Other countries are TWICE as efficient as America is.
How would you like your Healthcare costs halved?

I am going to do some really big things to completely change the madness of this current government.
Lots of the items I am looking at are listed in here.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/the-government-is-being-incredibly.html

Appendices 

Education policy 

We all know the Department of Education should be abolished because of the immense harm it is doing in NOT educating our children or giving them decent prospects to get a decent or even well paid job in the future.

Contrary to popular perceptions social mobility in America is now in the worst 3 out of 20 large developed countries.
America is rapidly falling behind other countries and a lot of it is due to the current abysmal education system, especially for the poorer half of society.

Also contrary to popular perceptions, education standards have not improved with the vast increases to education spending.

Most of the people that Rand Paul will need to attract (i.e. Indies) don't get why the Department of Education should be abolished and what an extremely bad thing it is.
It is a difficult sell and a nett vote loser.

This is what I intend to do about school education policy - give it back to the parents.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/how-to-make-dramatic-improvement-in.html

This is what I intend to do about college education policy.
Stop loading our young people up with $10,000's of dollars of debt before they even set out in life, when the job they end up does not need a college degree - on the job training would be much better for well over half of current students.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/the-current-college-education-policy.html

I have made a start on the selling of radical changes to education policy in the words above.
Rand Paul said NONE of these words.

Military spending 

Military spending is now TRIPLE what it was during the cold war and Obama is spending more the military than even GW Bush did.
Military spending needs to be drastically cut - we can't afford it.

http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/military-spending-1962-to-date.html 

If we don't cut military spending now, this is what our air force is going to end up looking like.
We won't be able to afford proper planes.

The American Air Force circa 2030.




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Sunday, 17 March 2013

The geopolitical games being played in Cyprus right now. Russia vs the EU and the West

Posted on 19:13 by Unknown

Background 

Over half the deposits in Cypriot banks come from non-resident Russians. 
The 6.75% tax on deposits below 100k euro's and the 10% tax on deposits above 100k euro's is expected to raise 10bn euro's. 

The Russians are going to lose over 5bn in this deal.

The Russians have offered to bail out Cyprus on different terms. 

The proposition 

The Russians will bail out Cyprus to the tune of about 10bn Euro's. 
It will actually cost Russia less than 5bn - see above. 
In return the Russians will ask for a large naval base in Cyprus - they have a problem with their lack of presence in the Mediterranean. 
Particularly with Syria kicking off. 
Presumably the Russians will also ask for the Brits to be kicked out of their major military bases on Cyprus. This last one is presumably negotiable and could be compromised in the final terms. 

Whatever happens there is very interesting geo political stuff going on in Cyprus right now. 

The mainstream reported info is just the tip of the iceberg.
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Censored by Huffington Post - the solution (to the budget) is simple

Posted on 18:42 by Unknown

The solution is simple. 

You cut ALL of the well over $1.3tn a year of Corporate Welfare. 

Some of this is direct subsidies to big business.

Some of it is tax loopholes for large corporations

Some of it is pure waste - like America paying the highest price for drugs in the world - cut the costs of the drugs and save spending on Medicare/Medicaid. 

Some of it is in other forms of waste like :- 
Paying mercenary contracts of over $100bn a year when they charge 5 times as much as using US troops 

Or the continuation of the F35 plane project at $12.6bn a year, which even John McCain described as a complete waste of money. 

How about cutting America's ballistic nuclear submarine fleet saving $2bn a year. The submarine fleet is still at cold war levels.

How about cutting the bloated DHS budget that is spending countless billions in order to spy on every American citizen. 

Loads of ways to save money. 

Loads of ways to cut the massive subsidies to big business. 

The big banks are being subsidised to the tune of nearly $1tn a year. 
Stop doing that and the rest of America would be almost $1tn a year better off. 

Addendum
The subsidies to the big banks are on top of the  $1.3tn of Corporate Welfare quoted above. The true level of Corporate Welfare is well over $2tn a year. 
You can think of this as wealth redistribution. 
Wealth redistribution from the many to the very few. 

My above comments to this article are being censored.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/17/boehner-corker-taxes_n_2895620.html 

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The numbers NOBODY wants you to see. Military spend now TRIPLE that of cold war.

Posted on 04:15 by Unknown

Inflation adjusted chart

See the following for the numbers each year :-
http://www.davemanuel.com/2010/06/14/us-military-spending-over-the-years/

From this it can be seen that current military spending is now far higher than it was during the height of the cold war and the Vietnam war.

But the current numbers very significantly understate the true level of National Security spending.
The government is trying to cover up the true levels by hiding a long list of military spend in other departmental budgets.
E.G. the cost of maintaining America's nuclear arsenal, which is booked to the Department of Energy.
E.G. the increased costs of Veterans pensions and medical care that are a direct result of the wars (they are not included in the Pentagon budget).
Neither is the massive ramp up in DHS spending for domestic spying etc.

In 2011 the true level of military spending was about $930bn.
For 2012 true military spending increased VERY substantially to $1,219bn.

The REAL National Security budget - the numbers NOBODY wants you to see :-
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/the-real-national-security-budget.html

N.B. CBO spending plans show that military spending is planned to increase every year from 2014 to 2023 - rising by well over $100bn a year from 2012 levels by 2023.



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Friday, 15 March 2013

Censored by Huffington Post - the REAL costs of the wars

Posted on 06:16 by Unknown

My comments were in response to this article


Iraq War Cost U.S. More Than $2 Trillion, Could Grow to $6 Trillion, Says Watson Institute Study



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/14/iraq-war-cost-more-than-2-trillion_n_2875493.html

The REAL cost of the wars. 
$5tn+ to end of 2011

http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/real-cost-of-afghan-and-iraq-wars.html 

25 reasons why the decision to invade Iraq was a VERY bad idea. 
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/what-was-wrong-with-iraq-war.html

Some of my comments did get through Like these ones :-

By far the largest cost of the decision to invade Iraq and the $5tn+ costs of unfunded wars has been the bankrupting of America to all intents and purposes and was of GREAT benefit to CHINA in the rise of it's global power. 

The decision to invade Iraq hastened the day of the loss of American hegemony. 
It made America much weaker - strategically, militarily, fiscally and economically. 
It GREATLY assisted China - they picked up half of Africa for free in trade deals. 

As I said that it would in January 2002. 

It was plain to see that the, as yet unannounced, invasion of Iraq would do IMMENSE HARM TO AMERICA. 

The costs of the wars were at least $5tn at the end of 2011 and the costs continue to mount as the article correctly states. 

Some estimates put the estimated cost as high as $7tn at the end of 2011. 

But even this $7tn estimate does not include factors like this :- 

As a direct result of the Iraq invasion oil prices skyrocketed. 
They were below $30 prior to the war and eventually peaked at $140 in 2007/08. 

Iraqi oil production halved on the invasion and did not get back to pre invasion levels until 2011. 

Each $1 rise in the oil price has a siginificant detrimental effect on the growth of the US economy. 

How much did a $110 oil price rise hurt America in terms of lower GDP growth, lower tax revenues and higher benefits payments for things like unemployment? 

It has to be a very significant cost indeed - but nobody has tried to estimate it and include it in the cost of the wars. 

It was also a direct transfer of wealth from America and Europe to oil producing nations like Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. How much has this cost America in the end? 

The Iraq invasion also made Iran a significant regional power, where previously it was directly opposed and kept in check by Saddam Hussein. 
How much has this cost America? 

LOADS of other things that are not normally included in the costs of the wars, but are true direct costs.
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