Fabricating

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Wednesday, 4 September 2013

What will cruise missile attacks do to Assad's military capabilities?

Posted on 03:34 by Unknown
I don't pretend to be any military expert - but these are a few of my thoughts.
Other thoughts from more knowledgeable military people would be appreciated.

America will be able to knock out Assad's radar stations.
They will be able to bomb airfields away from civilian populations.

The radar station info is easily replaceable by Russian satellite imagery and naval reconnaissance.
Russia's naval base at Tartus is likely to be the transfer point for Russian intel.

There are no recent reports of Assad using planes to attack (there were some several months ago).

I do not know how many of Assad's 350 Migs America could destroy.
Assad is bound to have at least some underground storage.

Mobile military hardware will be moved to residential areas wherever possible to reduce the chances of America targeting it.

The Americans cannot target chemical stockpiles - the risk of release of chemical agents causing thousands of civilian casualties is far too high. America has already said this.

Assad may be able to move some of his chemicals to high probability targets such as airfields or radar stations to maximise civilian casualties from cruise missile strikes.

The mobility of Assad's forces will be greatly diminished during the period of cruise missile strikes.
His defensive capabilities in towns already held will not be affected that much.
Gadaffi held out for 7 months in isolated towns by firing from inside residential areas and he didn't have Russian intel.

Saddam had lots of mock up tanks that drew American targeting.
I do not know if Assad has the same.

There are 30,000 Russians in Syria.
Russia has started evacuating some of them.
What happens if there are significant numbers of Russians killed by a cruise missile strike?

Assad's government is already being moved into residential areas and public buildings such as schools.
His government infrastructure is unlikely to be affected much.

Communications infrastructure inside Syria will be targeted.
This will affect ordinary Syrians but I do not know how much the military communications will be affected - probably not that much.

Any hardware that is lost can be re-supplied by Russia, either during or after the cruise missile strikes.
Will the Americans risk targeting Russian military transports? Unlikely.
Re-supplies could also be effected via Tartus. America won't be targeting the Russian naval base.
Russia may well supply Syria with better and more powerful weaponry once the gloves are off.

The insurgents will try for a push while Assad is cramped during the attack period.
They are unlikely to be able to make many gains.
They will be able to consolidate at least some of the areas they already mostly control.

Making significant gains in Damascus or towns controlled by Assad is unlikely.

The situation on the ground is unlikely to be much affected by American cruise missile strikes.
There will be civilian casualties - I could not guess at how many there might be.
Assad will make the most out of any civilian casualties.

Assad may be able to make a propaganda coup out of American missile strikes.
There is a strong tendency in any country to rally round the government when attacked by another country, despite any previous differences there might be.
The populations in some of the towns controlled by the insurgents may become less supportive of the insurgents and his base is likely to be strengthened.

As reported previously American attacks are likely to broaden the conflict outside of Syria and/or destabilise neighboring countries, together with an increased risk of Americans or American assets being targeted by terrorists both at home and abroad.

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Tuesday, 3 September 2013

CIA Analyst Exposes Syrian War Lobbyists - Michael Scheuer

Posted on 23:38 by Unknown


The threat from Iran comes not from it's military.
The threat from Iran comes from the large number of sleeper cells and supporters already in America who could launch widespread terrorist attacks within the United States.

The delay in attacking Syria is to allow time for AIPAC to lobby Congressmen to support the war in Syria.
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Syrian Sunni Islamic Extremists fought & killed Americans in Iraq and now America is supporting the same people - what gives?

Posted on 23:32 by Unknown

Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Syria was the latest challenge to the White House by congressional Democrats, who are taking a more assertive role in influencing policy in the Middle East and the Iraq war.
Bush voices criticism
Bush has said Pelosi’s trip signals that the Assad government is part of the international mainstream when it is not. The United States says Syria allows Iraqi Sunni insurgents to operate from its territory, backs the Hezbollah and Hamas militant groups and is trying to destabilize the Lebanese government. Syria denies the allegations.

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/17920536/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/t/pelosi-shrugs-bushs-criticism-meets-assad/#.UibTJzY3t5G
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The Disastrous Consequences of a U.S. Military Attack on Syria

Posted on 14:14 by Unknown
President Obama has not spelled out the possible consequences of a military attack on Syria, but U.S. military leaders are warning about the risks. 
By Ann Wright - former U.S. Diplomat
President Obama has not spelled out the possible consequences of a military attack on Syria, but U.S. military leaders are warning about the risks. In a letter to the Senate Armed Services committee, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey wrote last month said, “As we weigh our options, we should be able to conclude with some confidence that use of force will move us toward the intended outcome.” “Once we take action, we should be prepared for what comes next. Deeper involvement is hard to avoid.”
General James Mattis, who retired recently as head of the U.S. Central Command, said last month at a security conference that the United States has “no moral obligation to do the impossible” in Syria. “If Americans take ownership of this, this is going to be a full-throated, very, very serious war.” 
......

“What is the political end state we’re trying to achieve?” said a retired senior officer involved in Middle East operational planning who said his concerns are widely shared by active-duty military leaders. “I don’t know what it is. We say it’s not regime change. If it’s punishment, there are other ways to punish.” The former senior officer said that those who are expressing alarm at the risks inherent in the plan “are not being heard other than in a pro-forma manner.”
Letter from former U.S. government officials appealing to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dempsey not to obey an illegal order to attack Syria
As Obama administration lawyers in the Justice and State Departments frantically write classified legal opinions to provide legal protection for whatever action the President decides on, others are calling for military officers to look to their constitutional responsibilities.
On August 31, 2013, 13 former officials of the U.S. government, including Pentagon Papers whistleblower Dan Ellsberg, retired CIA analyst Ray McGovern and retired US Army Colonel Larry Wilkerson, former Chief of Staff for Secretary of State Colin Powell, wrote an open letter to General Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, asking him to resign rather than follow an illegal order to attack Syria.
“We refer to your acknowledgment, in your letter of July 19 to Sen. Carl Levin on Syria, that a “decision to use force is not one that any of us takes lightly. It is no less than an act of war.” It appears that the President may order such an act of war without proper Congressional authorization.
As seasoned intelligence and military professionals solemnly sworn to support and defend the Constitution of the United States, we have long been aware that – from private to general – it is one’s duty not to obey an illegal order. If such were given, the honorable thing would be to resign, rather than be complicit.”
Read more at :-
http://www.alternet.org/world/exploring-disastrous-consequences-us-military-attack-syria?page=0%2C2&paging=off
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The undisputed facts about Syria & the attack in Damascus

Posted on 08:40 by Unknown

Here are the undisputed facts:

1. Our country has not been attacked.
2. Our country has not been threatened with attack.
3. No ally has been threatened with imminent attack.
4. Israel has been threatened if we attack Syria.
5. An attack will not cause regime change.
6. An attack will not prevent further use of chemical weapons.
7. An attack can and will create unintended consequences...just as involvement in Vietnam and Iraq. 


America has no reason to go to war in Syria and plenty of reasons to stay out of it.
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Congress should be very inquisitive and meticulous in the coming debate on Syria

Posted on 03:21 by Unknown

Congress should be very inquisitive about the evidence that Assad was behind the chemical weapons attack. The evidence so far is purely circumstantial.
Far more credible evidence exists that the chemical agents released came from the insurgents, but nobody knows who was behind the attack at the moment.

Congress should also be very meticulous in assessing the risks of adverse consequences of launching any military attacks on Syria.
It is possible that it will lead to a full blown regional conflict with Israel involved or suffering casualties.

What happens if America or Israel suffer casualties from retaliatory actions by Assad or Shia extremist groups?

Kerry has also stated that after some cruise missile strikes "it may be possible to assist the insurgents further".
Congress should ensure that any approval for a limited action is not seen as the green light for significant other actions.
How would Congress be able to stop covert actions to broaden American involvement?

There are already hundreds of CIA and U.S. "training" forces in Jordan that are already intervening in Syria.

Saudi Arabia and Qatar are openly arming the Islamic Extremists in Syria.

Who stands to benefit from attacking Syria?
It would primarily be Saudi Arabia.

It is not in America's interests to install an Islamic Extremist government in Syria.
It is not in America's interests to waste more billions of dollars on pursuing another ill-advised war in the ME.
America should not be getting involved at all.

Syria is sounding more like an Iran-Contra type affair every day. 

There are various reports that chemical weapons were supplied to the insurgents by outside agents. 
The Egyptian military government has now joined the fray with their own story on this. 
The reports that Prince Bandar and Saudi Arabia have been supplying chemical weapons to the Islamic Extremist insurgents need to be thoroughly investigated by an independent agent (not the U.S. government).

There are now also reports that U.S. military intelligence were involved in the chemical weapons release. 
Colonel MacDonald of U.S. Intelligence should be brought before Congress to testify. 

The U.S. should be mindful that arming the mujahadin in Afghanistan led to Al-Qaeda and 9/11. 
The U.S. should not repeat the mistakes of the '80's. 

There are numerous possible risks that direct military action will lead to Blowback. 
Ter rorist attacks from Shia extremists such as Hezbollah and Hamas. 

The threat of further destabilising Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, Iraq etc. 

The threat of terrorist strikes on Americans and American assets both at home and abroad. 

The threat of Iran covertly stirring up trouble and possible cyber attacks. 

The threat of rocket attacks or similar on U.S. bases in Kuwait from Iraq. 
Southern Iraq is Shia. 
There are 23,000 U.S. troops stationed in Kuwait. 

Russia is also likely to supply Assad with more and better weaponry after any American intervention. 
They are sending more surveillance to the Eastern Med. 
Why won't they supply this info to Assad to launch attacks against American warships as an act of self defense? 

Point-By-Point Rebuttal of U.S. Case for War In Syria 
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/09/point-by-point-rebuttal-of-u-s-case-for-war-in-syria.html

My previous comments on the risks of adverse consequences of any American direct military action 
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/the-risks-of-retaliatory-actions-and.html 

The facts about the conflict in Syria that Obama does not want you to see 
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/action-in-syria-what-would-it-achieve.html
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Sunday, 1 September 2013

The risks of retaliatory actions and adverse consequences from an American attack on Syria

Posted on 00:07 by Unknown

Where is Obama's analysis of the risks of adverse consequences from a military attack on Syria? 

These risks (and others) should be included in the Congressional debate that Obama now says will happen before any direct military action is taken in Syria.

An accidental chemical weapons release, killing thousands of civilians, from a cruise missile strike.
From retaliatory / self defense actions by Assad.
From retaliatory actions by extremist Shia groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas
The risks to American lives, including civilians from retaliatory terrorist strikes from America's illegal (under international law) actions
Retaliatory action by Iran such as impeding traffic in the straits of Hormuz or further assistance to Shia terrorist groups such as Hezbollah
The risk of further adverse reactions from the new military government of Egypt. There are already reports of Egypt preventing American warships from passing through the Suez canal.
Retaliatory action from Russia - e.g. giving Assad even better weapons
The risk of an attack on American warships by Assad
The risk to America's military bases in Kuwait, e.g. from attacks launched by Shia extremists in Iraq. There are 23,000 American troops stationed in Kuwait. What happens if rockets/small shells with chemical weapons are launched from inside Iraq?
The risk of the further destabilisation and increase in violence in Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon.
The risk of further destabilising Turkey.
The risk of attacks on Israel and drawing Israel directly into the conflict
The risk of terrorist attacks on American soil.
The risk of terrorist attacks in France as they are supporting the American action.
The risk to other American assets around the globe - e.g. embassies or even just Corporations or American civilians abroad.

What will the economic impacts be of military action in Syria?

The risk of a rise in the oil price which will choke off any economic recovery in the West.
The oil price and the price of gas at the pumps is already rising.
What will American public reaction be to a significant rise in the price of gas?

What will be the impact on the already high levels of unemployment in the West?
U6 unemployment is already at 14%.

America will spend more on war and increase it's already unsustainable levels of debt.

What are the risks of escalation and more countries becoming involved in the conflict? 

The risk that American or Israeli casualties will lead to demands for further military action.
The risk that Russia will become more involved in the conflict than just arming Assad.
The risk that China will respond with economic actions - e.g. selling U.S. Treasuries.

World War 1 started with a very minor event - the assassination of an Arch Duke in Serbia, the escalation and declarations of war spread like wildfire.
What are the risks of starting something akin to World War 3?
There are quite a few countries lined up on each side. See this

Dangerous Crossroads. A War on Syria, Prelude to a World War III Scenario?
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/08/dangerous-crossroads-a-war-on-syria-prelude-to-a-world-war-iii-scenario.html

I am sure I have missed quite a few of the possible adverse consequences of direct military action in Syria. 
The above are just some of them. 

Other

America also lacks the moral authority to act. 
It condoned and assisted Saddam's chemical weapon attacks on Iran. 
It turned a blind eye to Saddam's gassing 5,000 Kurds. 
It didn't condemn Israel's recent use of white phosphorous in Gaza. 
It used chemical weapons in Vietnam - Napalm and Agent Orange. 
It recently used depleted Uranium in Iraq which is causing hundreds of birth defects in Fallujah and Basra. 
It recently used white phosphorous in Fallujah.    

Nobody knows which of these risks will actually happen - at least some of them undoubtedly will.

America will create more enemies of America if it proceeds with military action in Syria. 
Public opinion around the world is against it (I am not just referring to Muslim countries). 

It will aid China in gaining more and stronger economic allies throughout the world. 
It will aid China's rise and America's decline in relative global power.  
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