SHUT THE BIG BANKS DOWN. Stop them holding the country to ransom. Holder says he won't prosecute

Holder says he won't prosecute the big banks.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/06/eric-holder-banks-too-big_n_2821741.html

If you do NOT discourage bad behavior and criminal activity with deterrent penalties - you will get MORE of it.
Reinstate the RULE OF LAW on the big banks.

Here is how you do it.


Reinstate Glass Steagal IMMEDIATELY. 

Fine the big banks $200bn+
There were 12 big banks fixing Libor - fine them $10bn each. 
Then there are all the mortgage frauds before and after the housing bubble collapse. 
Robosigning and illegal / fraudulent foreclosures should be good for a few $10'sbn. 
JP Morgan stealing $1.5bn from MF Global client segregated accounts. Then they stole another $200m from PFG. 
Then there is the endemic money laundering. How much is the global drugs trade worth? $500bn a year maybe. The big banks are laundering hundreds of billions of that every year. 
Then there is the endemic insider trading and the front running of clients trades. Get serious about prosecuting that. 

Put the CEO's of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan in jail for 30 years. 
Do the same for another 10 or 20 senior bankers plus Hank Paulson and Tim Geithner. 

Make the big banks repay ALL of the AIG bail out money. 

Stop the Federal Reserve bailing out the big banks to the tune of nearly $1tn a year. 
Stop all of the Corporate Pork and tax breaks for the big banks. 
Close ALL of the big banks DOWN. 

Let the multitude of better run smaller banks pick up the slack on general loans. 

See how quickly we will make a start on cleaning up Wall St. 
Just the shower receptions in a Federal Pen would do wonders.

Prosecute Goldman Sachs over the open and shut case of lying to Congress. 

Close down the Federal Reserve private bank. Freeze their balance sheet - let their shareholders take the loss - they have extracted enough profit over the years from ordinary Americans. 

The Federal Reserve is currently pumping out $1tn a year to the big banks who are speculating with it and raising the price of food and gas. 

Get the big banks to pay for their subsidy of $83bn a year due to lower interest rates that they get from the implicit government guarantee. 
STOP the government discrimination against smaller better managed banks. 

Cut the speculative part of the big banks away from retail. 
Don't let the taxpayers be on the hook for another even larger bailout.  
Make them reduce their derivatives exposure - they can close off a lot of the bets with each other. 

Slim down the big banks and eventually just shut them down. They are basically criminal enterprises. 

It's time to start getting TOUGH on the big banks and stop the big banks holding the country to ransom with their weapons of mass financial destruction. 

It's easy to to stop them trading. 
You just take away their banking licences. 

The big banks are NO loss to the economy. They would be making LARGE losses without all the government subsidies they are currently getting. 
New York might be a bit poorer - but EVERYWHERE ELSE would be much BETTER OFF. 

Appendices 

The massive criminality of the big banks
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/12/a-catalog-of-criminality-big-banks.html 


From "Gordon Gekko Reborn by Nouriel Roubini - Project Syndicate"...

"...Fourth, greed cannot be controlled by any appeal to morality and values. Greed has to be controlled by fear of loss, which derives from knowledge that the reckless institutions and agents will not be bailed out. The systematic bailouts of the latest crisis – however necessary to avoid a global meltdown – worsened this moral-hazard problem. Not only were “too big to fail” financial institutions bailed out, but the distortion has become worse as these institutions have become – via financial-sector consolidation – even bigger. If an institution is too big to fail, it is too big and should be broken up.

Unless we make these radical reforms, new Gordon Gekkos – and Charles Ponzis – will emerge. For each chastised and born-again Gekko – as the Gekko in the new Wall Street is – hundreds of meaner and greedier ones will be born."

The fear of loss must include:

o long prison sentences
o clawback of all money
o ban from working in the financial industry 

Thanks to OldTulsan for the Nouriel Roubini quote.

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Jeb Bush reminds me so much of Mitt and Ann Romney

All 3 of Jeb Bush's children have arrest records - Tagg Romney should be in jail for his dealings with Allen Stanford. 

His Mexican wife also has an arrest record. She was caught smuggling jewelry and furs back into the country after flying off to Paris to meet with "Carlos Slim" who was in exile in Mexico after fleeing with a few billion in US dollars from the Mexican treasury after being charged with drug smuggling and corruption.

She and Jeb used to vacation with Carlos Slim on his ranch in Mexico.

She was picked up for smuggling and arrested at the Allanta airport. 

Ann Romney should of been arrested over her $125,000 attempted fraud when trying to sell her crippled horse Superhit - who according to the vet was "doped up to the eyeballs".

Jeb Bush is a hard core Neocon and an original signatory to PNAC in 1997 - the Neocon agenda. 

The Bush family has a long association with and support Fascist policies, e.g. Eugenics. 

Helping Hitler's rise to power and continuing to help Hitler even after America was officially at war with Germany. Prescott Bush was convicted of trading with the enemy in 1942.    

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Political dictionary and definitions

Affordable Care Act 
Translation : The UNaffordable Healthcare Act

Makes more profits for large healthcare companies - they are expecting a BONANZA.
Makes Healthcare even more inefficient and unaffordable than it already is.
America currently ranks 37th for Healthcare efficiency and spends double per person than most other developed countries with far worse Healthcare results. Obamacare will make things even WORSE.
Equivalent of a 3.8% tax hike on the middle class.

AIPAC
Translation : An organisation with the sole purpose of promoting war and conflict in the Middle East

Bank (large) Translation : An organisation that seeks to make large profits from usury, financial speculation, fraud, money laundering and outright theft.

Pays large sums to the government and politicians so that their crimes go unpunished and they get bailed out by the taxpayer when they go bust.

Large banks have now changed their business model from old fashioned lending to the above profit generators.

Central Bank 
Translation (1) : An organisation that seeks to exacerbate and cause boom and bust cycles

Translation (2) : an organisation set up to increase the profits of their main shareholders (the large banks).
Like any private company, the Central Bank's primary purpose is to enrich their share holders.

The Federal Reserve cannot make large profits itself (they would have to return most of them to the Treasury if they did).

Instead the Federal Reserve seeks to give free money away to it's main shareholders.

It also seeks to increase the money supply by increasing overall levels of debt.
The more debt that there is, the more the amount paid in interest (over time).
Interest that is mostly paid to the Federal Reserve's large share holders.

The best way of increasing overall debt levels is to get governments to spend lots of money and to borrow heavily to pay for the spending.
(Or to have a housing/property bubble to increase personal debt levels.)

The best way to get the government to spend lots of money is to massively increase military spending and/or start a few wars.

The Federal Reserve also deliberately exaggerates the business boom and bust cycle.
It is very difficult to make money from financial speculation if prices just stay the same.    

CIA
Translation : an organisation that forms the military wing of America's large Corporations

They are also large scale drug traffickers in order to fund their Black Ops on behalf of the large Corporations.


Citizens United
Translation : Act to consolidate the power and hold over Washington DC of large Corporations and financial elites.
Increase the money available for blatant Corporate propaganda and government lies.
Make citizens even less well informed and even more disempowered.

Conservative
Translation :- Social and religious fascist.

N.B.
The previous definition of Conservative, i.e. an advocate of fiscal discipline, small government, balanced budgets, low taxes and civil rights no longer applies.
See Teaparty / Teabaggers definition below.

Conservative is no longer a term applied by the mass media to someone that advocates fiscal discipline - these people are now labelled "extremist" or "domestic terrorist".

If the media did apply the term Conservative to someone advocating fiscal discipline, the population might wake up and realize that there aren't any Conservatives left in Washington DC (well maybe just 1 or 2 out of the 535 in Congress and none in the White House).


Constitutionalist
Translation : A supporter of what made America great.

Supports the Bill of Rights.
Supports small government, low taxes, balanced budgets and fiscal discipline.

Usually labelled as an "extremist" or "domestic terrorist" in the mainstream media.
Labelled as such to discourage any discussion or proposals that might be contrary to the interests of large Corporations or financial elites.


Defense Company/Contractor 
Translation : An organisation that seeks to promote government policies that makes Americans (and the rest of the world) feel less safe so that they can sell more arms.

Exactly the same as any other private company - sell more product and make more profits.
Unlike most private companies though, this industry profits from war, conflict and human misery.

Can you imagine how arms sales around the world would plummet if the Israeli/Palestinian conflict was somehow resolved?


Democratic Party 

Translation : An organisation that has thrown everything it once stood for out of the window.

Now works for the bankers, large Corporations and financial elites.
Pursues Neocon warmongering policies (see Neocon).
The Democratic Party was supposed to act in the interests of the middle class and below but now pursues policies that are directly contrary to the interests of over 99% of Americans.
Advocates $1.3tn+ of annual Corporate Welfare.


DHS - Department for Homeland Security
Translation : The department for the government's security

An organisation set up in order to better control America's civilian population and to discourage and minimize dissent of the American government by Americans.

The DHS has received large scale funding increases over the last 10 years.
The government thinks it is going to need much more protection, when the people eventually work out what the government is currently doing to them.

Drone
Translation : A deliberately scary robotic weapon whose primary purpose is to recruit many more Islamic Extremists and Jihadists than they kill.

Robotic weapons are scary - anyone remember the opening scenes of the Terminator?
The killing of large numbers of innocent civilians with things like double tap drone strikes helps recruit millions more enemies of America.

92% of the population of Pakistan now considers the American government to be their enemy.
Drones are very effective in what they are intended to do.
They have recruited about 80 million new enemies of America, just in Pakistan,  in just 8 years and two or three hundred drone strikes. Drones are very effective in what they are designed to do.

Then we can talk about the Islamic Extremists taking over the governments of Libya and Egypt.
Or the civil wars raging in Yemen and Syria.

America has taken it's policy of recruiting more Islamic Extremists into new areas in Syria.
It is now arming the Syrian FSA with covert shipments from Benghazi - the majority of the FSA are Islamic Extremists.

The wars have now expanded into Africa.
Drones of course are already playing their part to escalate the conflict and tensions.
Obama has just sent drones into Niger.

Fascist
Translation :- advocates the merger of Corporate and State power.

Green Party / Greens
Translation (1) : Ex communist supporter who turned to the greens when communism was discredited with the collapse of the USSR.

Translation (2) : someone who has bought into the man made climate change hoax.

This hoax is propagated by the large oil companies to maintain a high oil price and to discredit any attempts of finding potential alternative ways to provide cheap energy  (e.g. research into cold fusion).

The latter reason is also a motive for the large arms companies. Imagine how their profits would be devastated if Middle East oil suddenly became irrelevant because there was a better energy source and peace broke out in most of the world.

Translation (3) : Someone who does not want the general population of the world to have comfortable lives. They are against economic expansion. They would rather see half of Africa starve every few years.

Translation (4) : A lobbyist for the billion dollar a year climate change industry and inefficient methods of energy production such as wind, solar and tide.
A lobbyist for companies that are trying to sell the government on these forms of inefficient energy production and get the government to subsidize solar panels in places like Wisconsin.
Think Solyndra.

Healthcare company (large)

Translation : An organisation that seeks to promote government policies that make American's less healthy so that they can sell more Healthcare.

Exactly the same as any other private company - sell more product and make more profits.
Unlike most private companies though, this industry profits from sickness, disease and human misery.

Can you imagine how Healthcare profits would plummet if somehow everyone started getting healthier?

Liberal

Translation (1) : A dictatorial approach to political discussion, freedom of choice and personal responsibility.

No views or opinion are valid unless they agree with your own preconceived notions.
Along with Political Correctness, policies that are designed to progressively take away your first amendment rights of freedom of speech and freedom of choice (see definition of progressive below).

As the current so called modern "liberal" views are indefensible against any logical or reasoned argument - when you lose such an argument just call your opponent a racist.

Translation (2) : A term of abuse by supporters of the GOP to label Democrat supporters as Socialists.
Why don't they just use the term Socialist?

Translation (3) : A form of social control - think Brave New World.

Translation (4) : A way of blaming your misfortunes or lack of material wealth or lack of personal happiness on others, when you can't be bothered to do anything about it yourself.

Translation (5) : thinks the solution to everything is more government, when the only solution is LESS government and the re-imposition of the Rule of Law.

N.B. What is now called "liberal" is the exact antithesis of the definition of a classical liberal (freedom of choice, personal decision making and personal responsibility).

Libertarian / Anarcho Capitalist
Translation :- A lover of fights and meaningless arguments over trivialities, technicalities and irrelevancies with people who generally agree with most of their views.

Someone who is an idealist and has no inclination to be practical about anything.
They make very poor political campaigners because they do not put their arguments in terms that most of the population can readily understand or empathise with.
Idealists who make no reference back to, or consideration of, the human condition.
Will NEVER accept 80% solutions that might be turned into 90%+, even when the current path is 180 degrees in the WRONG direction

Lobbyist 
Translation : Someone who encourages politicians to be or become the sort of politician they like to see.
Works on behalf of large Corporations or large industry groups.
(See the definition of a politician outlined below.)

NDAA The National Defense Authorisation Act 

Translation : Domestic Dissenters Control Act. 

Act to take away the natural civil rights to a speedy and fair trial which have been part of Anglo Saxon law since 1214. 

Authorizes the military to operate on the streets of American cities for the expected future requirement of large scale riot control. 

Large scale riot control is expected to be required in the near future due to the extreme economic poverty engendered by current Federal government economic policies.

N.B. the DHS have purchased 2,717 armored vehicles, ordered over 1.2bn hollow point bullets and are buying aerial drones for exactly this purpose.
They are also conducting training exercises with helicopter gunships firing blanks at real buildings in real cities.    

Mainstream Media
Translation : a cartel of 6 large Corporations designed to impart Corporatist propaganda to the masses

And very effective it is too.
Goebbel's and Stalin never achieved anything like this much control over the levels of information that their populations had.

The truth is often suppressed more by omissions than by blatant lies (although blatant lies are still pretty common place).

Monsanto
Translation : A large Corporation that seeks to monopolize the source of food production and is heavily supported by both the Republican and Democrat leaders.

An organization that is slowly poisoning the general population to the benefit of large Healthcare providers.

N.B. GMO foods are banned in both the Monsanto staff restaurant and the White House kitchen because of their harmful side effects. They don't want their own staff getting sick - it would cost them.

Neoconservative 
Translation : Policies that are designed to extract the last remaining wealth of the middle class and transfer it to wealthy bankers and other executives of large Corporations.
This is to be mainly achieved through massive pointless military spending and the huge amounts of government borrowing required for that massive and pointless military spending.
Ultimately these policies are designed to completely impoverish 99% of Americans so that they will call for a "strong leader" to repair the damage. Think Germany 1932.

N.B. 99% of GOP politicians and ALL of the current leadership of the Dems are Neocons.


Patriot Act
Translation : The UNpatriotic Act.
Shredder of the 4th amendment to enable wholescale spying on EVERY American citizen.
For the purpose of future blackmail or discrediting of any future dissenters to government policy.

Pharmaceutical company (large)

Translation : An organisation that seeks to promote government policies that make American's less healthy so that they can sell more drugs.

Exactly the same as any other private company - sell more product and make more profits.
Unlike most private companies though, this industry profits from sickness, disease and human misery.

Can you imagine how drug company profits would plummet if somehow everyone started getting healthier? 

Politician
Translation : A lying thieving scumbag in it for their own ends and to get re-elected and keep their own personal gravy train rolling.

N.B. People often go to Washington DC with good intentions but then quickly get corrupted by the 99% of people that are already there and conform to the above definition.

Progressive
Translation : Policies that are designed to progressively make 99% of Americans MUCH poorer.

Republican National Committee 
Translation : An organisation that sets out to take away of the voice of the ordinary people and to impose candidates on the Party that fully support the current Republican agenda - see below.

Republican Party 
Translation : An organisation that has thrown everything it once stood for out of the window.

Previously supported small government, balanced budgets, low taxes, civil rights and the Constitution.

Now supports reckless spending, huge government, massive deficits, $1.3tn+ of annual Corporate Welfare, perpetual war to make more enemies,  the impoverishment of America (see Neocon) and the shredding of civil rights and the Bill of Rights.

Works for the bankers, large Corporations and financial elites.
Acts directly against the interests of over 99% of Americans.

Rule of Law
Translation : A concept that has been completely abandoned by the Federal government (by BOTH parties).

The Bill of Rights no longer applies and is being shredded by both parties as fast as possible.

Large corporations can commit any white collar crime.
The executives of those Corporations know they will escape any form of sanction or penalty, whatever crimes they choose to commit.
In fact the executives that will receive the largest bonuses are those that commit more crimes than their pers in other companies.

Meanwhile 1 million ordinary harmless poorer people are incarcerated with long jail sentences for things like smoking a joint.
The rich don't go to jail for using or small time drug dealing.

"Justice" now depends on the accused's ability to pay - not the level of their guilt or innocence.
It also bears no relation to the level of harm or lack of harm that they might of don to others.

Tax Payer Relief Act (The Fiscal Cliff deal)
Translation : The large Corporations and financial elites wet dream.

Gives a huge $200bn a year tax hike to the middle class and below.
Retains ALL of the over $1.3tn a year of Corporate Welfare including ALL of the tax breaks and tax avoidance schemes that allow large Corporations to pay little or no Corporation Tax.


Tea Party / Teabaggers 
Translation (1) :- A movement that tried to restore some financial discipline and common sense into government but has utterly failed.
It did have some political success in 2010 but it no longer exists in any meaningful sense as a political force.

Translation (2) :- A term of abuse by Democrat supporters encouraged by the mainstream media.
What the people using this as a term of abuse are actually saying, is that they are against Neocon Corporatist Fascists.
As the leadership of the Democratic Party are now also overwhelmingly Neocon Corporatist Fascists the media now like to discourage all use of the term Neocon.

N.B. Teabagger institutions, think tanks and political leaders have now been subsumed into the GOP establishment and are a form of controlled opposition so that Tea Party principles no longer have credence.

War on Drugs
Translation : A PR campaign waged to increase the profits of certain large Corporations.

These Corporations include those in the following businesses who lobby heavily and spend lots of money to maintain the current drug laws of prohibition.

Pharmaceuticals - they don't like competition. they don't like happy people either - happy people tend to get less sick and don't need Prozac.
Alcohol (they don't like competition)
The private prison business (fewer prisoners would mean lower profits)

Also :-
Large banks - they make lots of profits out of laundering hundreds of billions of dollars a year of drug money cash. They can charge lots for this service too - it's black market and less competitive.
(In a smaller way this also applies to private equity, the hedge fund business and the casino/gambling business. See Bain Capital El Salvadorean seed funding as an example.)

War on Terror
Translation : a PR campaign waged to transfer the wealth of the middle class to the bankers, arms companies and rich elites.
Also  a campaign to take away ALL of Americans civil rights and eventually impose fully authoritarian Fascist rule.

Civil rights as defined in the Bill of Rights.

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CBO projections of future GDP growth rates, deficits and the National Debt are pure fantasy Updated 05/19

The CBO is taking a very benign and EXTREMELY optimistic view of future US GDP growth rates, which is not borne out by history or by current global economic conditions or by current global debt levels. 

E.G. the recession that has just started in Europe. 
E.G. China is reportedly now hitting 0% GDP growth - officially they say it is still about 6%, but the Chinese government have always overstated GDP growth. 
You can see why China's GDP growth might be at or near 0%. It is the same as the European and American current growth rates. 
India and Brazil are also rapidly slowing down. 

Average GDP growth from 1950 to 2000 was 3.3%. These were the boom times. 
And from circa 1980 onwards, GDP growth was massively fuelled by an exponential increase in the money supply.
Money supply has stopped growing since the housing bubble burst in 2007 (despite the Federal Reserve's massive attempts at more printing).

Since 2000 GDP growth has averaged just under 2%. 

The CBO is assuming an average of 3.5% GDP growth from 2014 and ever after. I.E. substantially higher than any lengthy period over the last 100 years.

Even the CBO recognises that future GDP growth is substantially reduced by higher levels of debt. 
And it is also generally recognized that this slow down in growth really starts to kick in when debt gets to be over 100% of GDP.   

The CBO future GDP growth forecasts are pure fantasy. 
As are their forecasts for future tax revenues which are highly dependent on future GDP growth rates. 
The deficits are going to be very substantially higher than the CBO are currently predicting. And so is the National Debt. 

The National Debt is now $16.5tn. 
GDP is $15.85tn as at end of 2012. 
Debt to GDP ratio is now 104% and rapidly rising. 

Government spending is planned to rise from $3.6tn in 2012 to $6tn in 2023 (with or without the sequester). 

The following scenario is much more likely. 
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/there-is-no-way-out-for-federal-reserve.html

I predict that with current policies (of BOTH parties) the US National Debt will be over $40tn by 2023. 
The debt to GDP ratio will be about 250%. 

That assumes the US has not already started defaulting on it's debt and the dollar has not already plunged in value. 
In which case economic and fiscal conditions in the US will be FAR worse than the predictions above.   

Updates 05/03
At some point in time the market WILL realise that America is NEVER going to pay off it's debts.
Interest rates will soar past 5%.

Interest payments on new borrowings will also soar (as above the Federal budget deficit is expected to be above $3tn in 2023 with current policies).

The value of the dollar will plunge and lose it's Global Reserve Currency Status.
The Chinese are already planning for that and to take over.
The Chinese think the American government is already bankrupt. (So do the Russians.)
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/02/greek-scenario-and-us.html
The Chinese are expecting a fire sale of US assets in the not too distant future. They have already carried out rough surveys to determine America's net worth - it's natural resources, farmland and water resources.

The collapse in the value of the dollar and the rise in interest rates will cause economic carnage in the United States.
America is running trade deficits of over $500bn a year.
The price of all imports will double in a fairly short space of time, while wages are held down. There will be an even greater over supply of labor.

This realisation by the market that the American government will never repay it's debts is still some time away.
But it WILL happen if there is not a complete reversal of government policy (by BOTH parties).


This outlines what needs to happen to start to turn things around.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/the-government-is-being-incredibly.html

Update 03/23
The full implementation of Obamacare is going to have larger detrimental effects on the US economy than I first thought.
Healthcare premiums are set to rise by between 50% and 100% in 2014 and Obamacare will bring with it significantly raised inflation in just about everything else.
Total healthcare spending is set to rise by $300bn+ in 2014. That $300bn won't be available to spend on everything else.
The full implementation of Obamacare will significantly deepen the coming recession.
It is going to cost millions of American jobs over the next 2 or 3 years.
See the latest updates on this :-
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/the-affordable-care-act-should-be.html

Appendices/Notes

The official CBO headline deficit charts ignore the cost of debt servicing (the cost of interest payments). 

According to the CBO's own forecasts elsewhere, interest payments are expected to rise by about $750bn a year to $1tn a year in 2020 (and keep rising). 
There is a lot of uncertainty over where interest rates will be in a few years. 
(CBO estimates are that new government debt will be issued at 5% interest in 2020.)    
The long term historical average for US 10 year government debt is between 5 and 6% (averaged over the last 200 years). 
Other scenarios are more likely. I have put some of them in here. 
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/there-is-no-way-out-for-federal-reserve.html

Some people (and in at least parts of the CBO site) are quoting US National Debt levels of $11.5tn.
This is just financial trickery.
The National Debt is now $16.5tn. 
GDP is $15.85tn as at end of 2012. 
Debt to GDP ratio is now 104%. 
Canada uses a similar piece of accounting trickery to the US to reduce their officially reported national debt. No other countries do and most statisticians and real economists ignore the sleight of hand by the US government to reduce the reported National Debt to $11.5tn. 
(Why all the arguments over the debt ceiling if the National Debt is only $11.5tn?
 It's just another piece of disinformation by the US government.)  

CBO headline predictions 
N.B. Note that these headline charts EXCLUDE the cost of interest payments on the rapidly rising National Debt.

The CBO itself predicts that debt servicing will increase by about $750bn a year to $1tn by 2020 and continue to rapidly increase thereafter. 

(After 2020 the demographic time bomb of more retirees per worker really kicks in.)

These charts are therefore pure fantasy.
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/06-05-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook_2.pdf 

CBO information on future government spending plans 

Why the sequester is a giant con trick
Spending is planned to rise from $3.6tn in 2012 to $6tn in 2023, with or without the sequester. 
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/why-sequester-is-giant-con-trick.html

Update 05/19
The CBO have revised their projections with some frankly ludicrous assumptions in order to predict that the deficit is going to come down.

The CBO assessment of the deficit profile relies on every trick in the book. The assumption is that all of the variables that weigh on the deficit will be improving over the next few years. Tax collections will remain at historically high levels. Government spending will decline as the economy improves. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be kicking $95Bn into the coffers. Social Security will cost less than previously thought, the same favorable result is assumed for both Medicare and Medicaid. And of course, there will be no wars or military incursions that have to be paid for. But, by far, the biggest driver of the reduced deficits will come from the robust economic recovery that they predict to occur (which are totally without foundation and frankly ludicrous).
This is the CBO forecast for top line GDP growth:

Healthcare spending is set to rise by about $300bn in 2014.
Partly as a result of more people having access to free healthcare, but mostly due to the steep rise in Healthcare premiums of between 30% and 100% in 2014 (it varies a lot by State).

This additional $300bn will be almost exclusively paid for by the middle class, who will not be able to spend it on everything else.
The consumer is already tapped out as demonstrated by the decline in personal credit.
The only personal debts that are rising are Student Loans and subsidized auto loans.
Other debt, e.g. credit card debt, is going down.

The economic indicators have nosedived off a cliff since early April.
Recent data issued last week indicates that recession is not that far away - both the NY and Philly Fed data had negative prints indicating recession plus there was the major 16.5% decline in new housing starts.

Barron's economic indicators (blue line)
http://www.demeadville.com/baro.html

The job numbers are also being dramatically overstated.
The aggregate job numbers for 2013 show the Establishment (business) survey reporting a total of 480,000 more jobs than the Household survey so far this year.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/aggregated-nfp-employment-numbers-for.html

The jobs numbers reported for May are likely to be very poor (as per the NY and Philly Fed data) leading to downward revisions to GDP in 2013 and beyond.
Goldman Sachs was expecting GDP growth of 2% in Q2, when Q1 GDP was issued on 26th April, before the latest dire economic data was issued.
Goldman Sachs also dramatically over-estimated Q1 GDP at 3.2% - it came in at 2.5%.

Analysts are currently expecting company earnings growth to be +22% (annualised) for Q2, when earnings growth for the last 12 months has been +0.4% and the latest economic data indicates recession soon.
The recent rise in the value of the US Dollar will also not help foreign earnings reported in dollars or exports, if it is maintained.
Expect a large number of downgrades to analysts forecasts before Q2 earnings start being reported in July.
This will also lead to downward revisions to GDP growth forecasts for 2013.

Eventually the CBO will revise their GDP forecasts again.
They will need very substantial downward revision.
America will be very lucky to see 2% growth a year for the next 10 years (the average rate it has been since 2001).

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The heinous and serious crimes of the Obama regime - the utter failure to uphold the Rule of Law updated 06/30

The crime that the Obama regime has committed is the absolute and utter failure to uphold the RULE OF LAW.

The PRIMARY purpose of any government is to uphold the Rule of Law to protect it's citizens from those that would otherwise do them harm.

Obama is actually encouraging the banks to ride rough shod over the people by not punishing the endemic criminal and fraudulent behavior of the banks.

Instead of sending the criminals to jail, Obama is actually rewarding the big banks by giving them nearly $1tn a year of continuing bail outs and by facilitating rulings like foreclosure trials being ruled in favor of the big banks and against law abiding citizens on blatently forged documents produced by the banks.

Obama has even publicly stated that the senior bankers will NEVER be prosecuted whatever white collar crimes they choose to commit in the future.

The big banks will only ever occasionally get tiny slaps on the wrists for any crimes they commit.
Like a share holder fine of 5 weeks of revenues for $8bn of drugs money laundering stretching back for a decade. (That was the charge brought - the reality is that the money laundering stretched back over a century.)

Obama has given the big banks carte blanche to rape and pillage the population as they see fit.

I don't know about you, but I call that a most heinous and serious crime by the government.

And an utter dereliction of the first and foremost duty of any non criminal government.

There are lots of other and more serious ways the Obama regime has utterly failed in it's primary and foremost duty of protecting the people.

The rescinding of the right to a speedy and fair trial by a jury of your peers.
A natural right that has existed in Anglo Saxon law since 1214.
The government now has the right the incarcerate any person that upsets them (that most definitely now includes US citizens), indefinitely and without access to a lawyer, without having to produce any evidence whatsoever.

The failure to uphold the right of privacy and ensuring there is probable cause for any searches of property or persons.
The government now routinely spies on EVERY American citizen without any form of warrant or just cause.
They collect as much electronically transmitted data as they can, such as online bank account transactions, mobile phone calls, emails and lots of internet traffic. They are even eavesdropping on your conversation on the bus.
You had better not have had an illicit affair or similar indiscretion in the past and upset the government in the future.
The government intend to use the information they are now storing away to blackmail anyone that upsets them in the future.
Let us say you might wanted to demonstrate against the Keystone Pipeline or join the Occupy protest on Wall Street ........
Let us say the government wanted to confiscate your property to build the Keystone Pipeline and you did not think the government were offering you enough compensation ..........
Or any other dissent or dispute against the government.
Warrantless and abusive searches without just cause was a primary motivation for the American Revolution of 1776.
This government is FAR more abusive than the Brits EVER WERE.

The government now deems itself to have the right to kill any American citizen (and anybody else) anywhere in the world, including on US soil, with no justification whatsoever.
Armed drones will be coming to US skies soon.
Make sure you don't get too close to a terrorist "suspect" or anyone else that might of displeased the government.
It will be hard luck if you or your family get killed. You will just be "collateral damage".

The failure to protect it's citizens from the abuses of other large Corporations (not just the banks).
E.G. the far from deterrent penalty imposed on BP for the Deepwater Horizon disaster.
Or the routine and endemic abuses of the large pharmaceutical companies lying about their products (and over charging to boot).

The failure to follow the basic rules of good governance.
Obama will sign any Executive Order he sees fit - he pays no heed of Congress.
Congress is now entirely complicit in destroying the Rule of Law anyway.

The utter failure to protect the Bill of Rights and the Constitution, which have been utterly shredded using the so called "War on Terror" as the publicly stated reason.
The real reason is to control the domestic population, to control anybody who speaks out or dissents against the government policy of allowing the large Corporations to steal the people's wealth and otherwise abuse them.

When was the last time you heard about a rich elite being jailed?
When was the last time you heard about a senior banker or large Corporate executive getting jail time?
"Justice" is now according to your ability to pay, it has nothing whatsoever to do with the Rule of Law.

NONE of the 3 branches of government now uphold the Rule of Law.
Congress has totally ignored the Constitution for a very long time.
Increasingly the Supreme Court makes unconstitutional rulings - like throwing out the recent legal challenge to FISA.

This government does not uphold the Rule of Law.
This government does not uphold the basic fundamentals of civilization - that the citizens have rights which it is the duty of the government to protect.

This government is a government of tyranny and oppression, ruled by large Corporations and rich elites.
It is most definitely NOT ruled by and for the people.
This government fulfils the very definition of despotism and Fascism.
 
Updates 03/06
Eric Holder says that drone bombings of American citizens on American soil are "legal".
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/05/us-drone-strike_n_2813857.html
Alberto Gonzalez said that the use of torture and kidnapping to deliver into the hands of despots for the purposes of torture were also "legal". That does not make it true.

Drones are now to be designed to identify gun carriers.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/03/05/Homeland-Security-Drones-Designed-To-Identify-Civilians-Carrying-Guns
These are intended to be used in domestic RIOT control to "knock out" potential threats to the authorities so that the rest of the dissenters can easily be rounded up and incarcerated (presumably indefinitely and without access to any lawyer or trial - NDAA).
Presumably it is intended to round up the dissenters with the army - Posse Comitatus has now been effectively repealed as part of NDAA.
And by the use of the 2,717 armored vehicles now in the possession of the DHS and by the use of the 1.6 billion hollow point bullets already ordered by the DHS.
Obama is fully expecting mass civil dissent and mass rioting due to the expected extremely high levels of unemployment and economic impoverishment of most of America brought about by his policies.

Updates 06/30

The latest examples of the utter failure to uphold the Rule of Law in America

California Man Faces 13 Years in Jail for Writing Anti-Bank Messages in Chalk on the Sidewalk
http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2013/06/26/california-man-faces-13-years-in-jail-for-writing-anti-bank-messages-in-chalk-on-the-sidewalk/

So while thousands of non-violent drugs "offenders" get 20 years plus for putting stuff inside their own bodies, the senior bankers walk away free from wrecking millions of lives in America's racist and class warfare "justice" system which Barack Obama does absolutely nothing to correct.

The big banks  have not even been forced to repay the many billions they received from the taxpayer funded bailout of AIG.
AIG paid out 100c on the dollar when it could only afford to pay out 5c or less.
Goldman Sachs profited the most from this "deal".

The big banks flagrantly breach the terms of the Foreclosure settlement.
It's not the Feds who are prosecuting though - it's New York State
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22428600

Bank Of America Paid Foreclosure Bonuses While Lying To Homeowners
http://thkpr.gs/15cECan

Whistleblower: Wells Fargo Fabricated and Altered Mortgage Documents on a Mass Basis
http://demu.gr/12527449

STUNNING! Wells Fargo launders Mexican drug cartel money, then invests in for-profit prisons
http://demu.gr/1002553981

The massive criminality of the big banks, The rule of Law no longer applies, HSBC money laundering goes unpunished and the failure of government
http://ian56.blogspot.com/2013/02/the-massive-criminality-of-big-banks.html

The catalog of civil rights abuses under the Obama regime
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/obamas-civil-rights-violations.html

Shut the big banks DOWN - stop them holding the country to ransom
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/shut-big-banks-down-stop-them-holding.html

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Why the creation of the Federal Reserve was the absolute WORST thing that ever happened to America

The distortion of free markets, sooner or later, ALWAYS ends in tears.
Markets, sooner or later, ALWAYS revert back to historical norms.

The larger the distortion of the market the more painful the eventual reversion to historical norms will be.

The Federal Reserve private bank is by FAR the WORST example of distorting free markets. 
They control interest rates and money supply around the world. They grossly interfere in free markets. They are by FAR the largest manipulator of markets in the world today. 
And they do it just about every day.

Examples of the Federal Reserve distorting markets and then causing huge amounts of subsequent pain.

The Federal Reserve greatly exacerbated the stock market bubble in the late 1920's with their easy money policies of the time.
The Federal Reserve then greatly exacerbated the great depression by decreasing the money supply.

The Federal Reserve greatly exacerbated the Nasdaq bubble in the run up to 2000 with their easy money policies.
Instead of letting the fall out of the Nasdaq bubble run it's course with a minor recession, the Federal Reserve lowered base rates to 1% into 2003/2004.
This GREATLY exacerbated the housing bubble which had already started and led to near financial armagedon with the housing price crash and banking insolvencies.
If the Federal Reserve hadn't meddled and had left interest rates at about 5% where they were in 2000, we would all be INCREDIBLY MUCH BETTER OFF.

It also GREATLY exacerbated the sovereign debt bubble, government deficits and National Debts.
Governments around the world had no incentives to stop spending and get their collective financial houses in order.
What should of been a mild recession after 2001 has been turned into a total global financial disaster by the policies of the Federal Reserve private bank.

Instead of letting the fall out of the housing market crash run it's course and letting the markets readjust, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to zero and embarked on quantitative easing.

The only effect of quantitative easing has been the lowering of disposable incomes and living standards of ordinary people and a transfer of wealth from middle America to the big banks and financial elites.
It certainly has NOT created any decent paying jobs or wealth creation in America - quite the reverse.

Governments around the world are now struggling with their mountainous debts and huge annual deficits.
These problems have been primarily caused by the policies of the Federal Reserve private bank in encouraging, instead of discouraging, governments around the world to increase their borrowing, their deficits and their debts.

The National Debt of America has tripled in just 12 years.
It has gone from $5tn in 2001 to $16.5tn now.
The government is still running trillion dollar deficits and doing nothing to rein in it's spending.
According to the Congressional Budget Office, Federal spending is planned to increase to $6tn in 2023.
The deficits and national debt will more or less rise in line with these spending increases.
The deficit will be about $3tn a year in 2023.
The National Debt will be over $40tn.

The Federal Reserve private bank continues to exacerbate America's economic policies by lowering disposable incomes - in fact they have just made it even worse by announcing in September that they were stepping up the printing of money in QE from $500bn a year to $1tn a year.

The fall out from the current economic and financial crisis is going to be devastating for the entire world.
The primary source of blame lies with the Federal Reserve private bank.

The Federal Reserve should be ended as soon as possible.
The $3tn on it's balance sheet, soon to be $4tn and growing at $1tn a year should be frozen.
The shareholders of the Federal Reserve should lose ALL of that money as a tiny proportion of the damage they have done to America.

The creation of the Federal Reserve private bank is the WORST thing that ever happened to America (including the civil war).
It encouraged the creation of vast amounts of debts by the government.
It made it very easy to borrow huge amounts of money.
It made it very easy for the government to spend recklessly in order to get re-elected.

Until the day of reckoning arrives, interest rates revert back to historical norms of 5% or 6% and America is recognised for what it is. Financially bankrupt.
When that eventually happens it will set off an economic fire storm raging across America and the entire world.

Stop this from happening. Minimise the damage and the fall out.
End the Fed. NOW.

See also :-

The frightening path that the government and the Federal Reserve have set out upon.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/there-is-no-way-out-for-federal-reserve.html


Appendices


Federal Reserve propaganda
  
The Federal Reserve private bank engages in endless propaganda that it somehow acts as some sort of financial safety net or is somehow a force for good.

When the Federal Reserve is THE root cause of America's problems and massively exacerbates every boom and bust cycle.
Just as it is currently doing right now.

The primary purpose of the Federal Reserve private bank is to make money for it's shareholders - just like any other private company.
The major shareholders of the Federal Reserve are other private banks and financial elites.

The principle business model of the Federal Reserve and how it benefits it's shareholders is to ensure that there are huge and increasing debts.
Debts upon which interest is paid to it's major shareholders - principally the big banks.

The principal business model of the Federal Reserve is to extract interest payments from the entire American population who pay that interest mostly to it's shareholders.
It is even written into the Fed's charter.
The Federal Reserve's loans to the government have collateral.
The collateral is the labor of EVERY American citizen and the taxes that can be extracted from that labor.
That is why America has one of the harshest tax regimes in the world.
It does not matter if you go and work some place else.
You are still liable for American taxes (unlike most other countries).
The only way you can escape the Federal Reserve and it's shareholders living off your labor, is to leave America and renounce your citizenship.


The creation of the IRS, also in 1913 was the second worst thing to ever happen to America.
The IRS was principally created to collect the money in taxes to make the interest payments to the Federal Reserve and it's private shareholders (principally the large banks) on the vast amount of debts that were sure to be created, by the creation of the Federal Reserve private bank.


The Effect of the Federal Reserve on America in the last 50 years

Total money supply expanded exponentially until the current financial crises started hitting

The National Debt has also increased exponentially 

The National Debt is now at $16.5tn

Real economic growth vs money supply inflation

When there was REAL economic growth in America in the 1950's and 1960's and there were low government deficits and little money supply expansion, EVERYBODY'S income and standard of living rose dramatically.

When economic growth is fuelled by exponential government debts and money supply inflation (from circa 1980) only the rich benefit.

Congressional Spending plans to 2023

Get government spending and deficits back under control and get interest rates back to the historical norm of about 5% as quickly as possible.

We will get more of the same or worse, until we do.


200 years of government bond yields

Interest rates WILL revert back to their historical norms in the future.
Markets ALWAYS revert back to historical norms sooner or later.
The historical norm for US government bond yields is 5 or 6%.
Markets tend to overshoot the historical norm for a while, if they previously got far away from the norm.
Just like they did from 1940 to 1980.
And just like they have done from 1980 to today.


Global future global growth projections

These projections are a little out of date.

The forecast was kind to the US. It is already down to 21.5% of global GDP, as at end 2011, due to poor governance, poor monetary policy, poor economic policies, increased regulations and overspending on the military.

The European Union's economy is just entering a major recession, due to it's mountainous debts.
Europe is America's largest export market.

Global GDP by country
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

The Republicans and Democrats are currently shuffling deckchairs on the titanic with their discussions about budgets and the Fiscal Cliff.
Neither party has any proposals to make America more COMPETITIVE again, so that the wealth of ordinary Americans might increase instead of rapidly declining. 

REAL Unemployment - America's lost decade

Real Inflation is now nearly 10% a year

(All governments understate true inflation - it makes their economic performance look better and reduces their costs. America just lies more than most.)

Income Inequality and Stagnation 

Real male median wages are now back to the levels of 1970.
Wealth is being transferred to the top.

The Welfare Society

Cumulative Annual debt 2008 to 2012

The US takes third place - just behind Greece and ahead of Spain.

Before the income tax and the Federal Reserve there were government surpluses
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/before-income-tax-there-were-surpluses.html

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The government is being INCREDIBLY STUPID. It is allowing the Federal Reserve private bank to behave INCREDIBLY STUPIDLY as well.

Why the government is behaving INCREDIBLY stupidly and WRECKING the American economy 

The economy will NEVER recover unless the disposable incomes for ordinary people start to rise again.
Disposable incomes for ordinary people have been falling since 2001, they are now falling at an alarming rate.
The fiscal cliff deal just accelerated this trend by handing the middle class and the working poor a HUGE $200bn a year tax hike.

Government policy should be directed at INCREASING disposable incomes and getting bottom up spending going again.

It is very easy to see how to make a good start on that.

Increase the income tax allowance from $8,700 to $45,000.
That would put $500bn straight back into the pockets of the 99%, almost all of it going to middle earners and below who would spend it.

Completely reform Corporation Tax.
Set a flat rate of 25%. No loopholes or tax breaks whatsoever.
This would slightly increase Corporate Tax revenues.

Then make the first $100,000 of profits tax free.
This would give a huge tax break to small and medium sized businesses.

These two steps together would mean :-

Ordinary people's disposable income would start increasing again.
There would be more demand for all types of goods and services.
There would be more small business start ups - the risk/reward of starting a new business is now so much better.
Existing small and medium sized businesses would start hiring again. Small and medium sized business are the true job and wealth creators.
Unemployment would go down instead of up. Unemployment will undoubtedly rise in 2013 and beyond with current policies.
The cost of poverty and unemployment payments paid out by the government would start going down. They will undoubtedly rise in 2013 and beyond otherwise.

We have the makings of a virtuous circle.
Additional steps can then be taken to reduce both personal and Corporate Tax rates further, with the emphasis being on reducing taxes for the non wealthy and non giant Corporations.
This will bolster and accelerate the virtuous circle.


In order to pay for these tax reductions for ordinary people, Corporate Welfare should be immediately cut by $1.3tn a year.
It is easy to see how to do more than that -see Appendix.


With current policy, America is in an economic death spiral.
Disposable incomes of ordinary people continue to fall at an alarming and accelerating rate, while giant Corporations continue to make record profits.
Current policy needs to be COMPLETELY REVERSED.

Why the Federal Reserve private bank is behaving INCREDIBLY stupidly and WRECKING the American economy 

Currently the Federal Reserve is printing $1tn a year of new money.
This money is going straight into the excess reserves of the big banks. They are not lending it out.
The big banks already have $2tn of excess reserves.
They have to do something with it.
They are using this money for speculation.

Some of this speculative money is being used to bet on food and gas prices.
It is pushing up the prices of both.
Goldman Sachs made $400m last year pushing up food prices.
Gas prices just hit an all time record for February, with $4 gas in California.

Increases to food and gas prices affect poorer people disproportionately.

Current Federal Reserve policy is LOWERING disposable incomes, lowering GDP growth, raising unemployment and deepening the coming recession. 

The Federal Reserve needs to STOP printing money.
It actually needs to take away some of the current $2tn of excess bank reserves.

What needs to be done to reverse America's current economic decline

More details on how incredibly stupid both the government and the Federal Reserve are being and other things that need to be done to reverse America's decline are included in here.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/why-sequester-is-giant-con-trick.html

E.G.
The Corporate cartels that currently operate in each major industry need to be broken up to increase competition.

For banking, Glass Steagal needs to be immediately reinstated as a first step.
The huge amounts of current government and Federal Reserve subsidies to the big banks need to be entirely stopped. They amount to nearly $1tn a year, all of which will eventually be paid for by taxpayers.

Appendices



Corporate Welfare
Some examples of Corporate Welfare, military spending and other grossly wasteful government spending that can easily be stopped altogether or drastically cut.

$105bn a year for 7,000 mercenaries still in Iraq.
$170bn on building new and supplying existing foreign military bases.
$88bn per year on the Afghan war. Get out now.
$100bn+ of Medicare fraud.
Reduce the price of prescription drugs. America pays by far the highest prices in the world.
Stop the $200bn of new Corporate Pork a year.
Stop the futile war on drugs and save $200bn a year.
Fine the big banks $200bn+ for the harm they have done - it is easy to do.

Completely reform Corporation Tax.
Ending the tax avoidance by offshoring US generated profits and other tax breaks given to multinationals, banks and arms companies would bring in $200bn a year.

End the personal tax avoidance schemes like carried interest and hedge fund managers diverting their remuneration through reinsurance schemes would also bring in more revenues.

Make the taxation system FAIR. Don't favor the rich and large multinationals over the little guy and small businesses.

There are many other ways of saving money and making the marketplace fairer.
The above adds up to $1,300bn a year. 
A lot more than that is possible and should also be done.

Further details and examples are listed in here

  http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/it-is-very-easy-to-cut-1tn-from-federal.html


Update 03/26
These $780bn a year government subsidies to the big banks should also be removed to all allow smaller and better managed banks and credit unions to fairly compete.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/the-780bn-of-annual-subsidies-to-big.html


The Coming Demographic Timebomb
(Added 03/05)

There is a coming demographic time bomb that will massively exacerbate America's debt problems.
The ratio of the number of retirees to the number of workers is increasing all the time. People are living longer than they used to.
This ratio really starts really accelerating upwards from around 2020.
It is already written into the future just by examining the numbers of people in each age group of the current population. The green segment in the chart below will start retiring then.
It won't change very much at all however much future immigration levels are.

N.B. This problem affects the entire developed Western world (and China and the BRIC's too) - not just America.
Don't expect any help from the rest of the world via increasing American exports.

The only way that this problem can be fixed is to gradually start raising the retirement age at some point in the future and raise it very significantly to 70+ by 2050.
Some countries have already made a start on doing that - e.g. the UK, but America hasn't.

N.B. The Social Security Trust Fund does not contain any real money.
It is stuffed full of government IOU's.
Government IOU's that the government will not be able to afford to fulfil.

The way to start fixing Medicare/Medicaid is to start making Healthcare more EFFICIENT, so that these programs cost less for the same services. The cost of prescription drugs, fraud, over prescription and massive overcharging for Healthcare all need to be tackled. Americans pay DOUBLE for Healthcare, with worse Healthcare results, than say France.
The age qualification will need to be raised as per pensions. Benefits will also need to be means tested.

Something else that Americans would benefit from reading.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/the-fall-of-rome-was-due-to-unfunded.html

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