Friday, 17 May 2013

Aggregated NFP Employment numbers for 2013 - Jobs data without the hype


Employment data aggregated January to April 2013

I haven't seen the jobs numbers (NFP's) totalled up by month anywhere else, so I thought I would do it.

Household Survey 
Total 274,000
Part time jobs 143,000
Full time jobs 131,000

Average 68,500 jobs per month

Establishment (business survey) - the numbers that get quoted in the media headlines

Total 754,000

Average 188,500 jobs per month

The difference between the two reports

The difference of 480,000 between the two reports can largely be accounted for by :

1) The Household survey does not count people who start a 2nd or 3rd job (291,000)
These are almost exclusively low paid part time jobs.

2) Overstatements on the BLS Birth/Death numbers of around 133,000.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/business-start-ups-bls-birthdeath-model.html

The job number details by month
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3QiiNVim6gZV2FkYUxISXpCQWM/edit

Aggregated economic indicators (the blue line)
http://www.demeadville.com/baro.html
The economic indicators have taken a dramatic turn for the worse since March, particularly in the last 3 days.

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